油脂日报：棕榈油库存压制，价格承压震荡-20251217

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy is neutral [4] Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated and declined yesterday. High - frequency shipping data showed that the export data in early December was also poor, possibly related to India's reduced palm oil purchases. In December, the destocking cycle is not expected to start yet. The high inventory in the producing areas continues to suppress prices. Currently, it is still in the stage of negative realization, and there is no substantial positive news yet. Future attention should be paid to the production and export situations in the producing areas [3] Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract yesterday was 8,410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 82 yuan or 0.97% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 7,872 yuan/ton, a decrease of 68 yuan or 0.86%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9,063 yuan/ton, a decrease of 133 yuan or 1.45% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan or 1.17%, with a spot basis of P05 + 20 yuan, a decrease of 18 yuan. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan or 0.84%, with a spot basis of Y05 + 408 yuan, a decrease of 2 yuan. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan or 1.24%, with a spot basis of OI05 + 497 yuan, an increase of 13 yuan [1] Market Information - Affected by the shutdown of coastal oil mills, the output of imported and pressed rapeseed oil continued to stagnate last week. Against the background of overall sluggish spot trading, the inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed oil maintained a passive downward trend and has dropped to a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. As of the end of the 50th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed oil in China was 384,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons or 5.34% from the previous week. The contract volume was 54,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons or 9.98% from the previous week [2] - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (January shipment) was 1,159 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 12 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (March shipment) was 1,120 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton. The C&F quotation of imported rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed oil (January shipment) was 1,090 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (March shipment) was 1,070 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (January shipment) was 484 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (January shipment) was 480 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (January shipment) was 480 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton. The import soybean premium quotes: Mexico Gulf (January shipment) was 245 cents/bushel, unchanged; US West Coast (January shipment) was 235 cents/bushel, unchanged; Brazilian ports (January shipment) was 235 cents/bushel, unchanged [2] - According to data from the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA), from December 1 - 15, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 2.55% compared to the same period last month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.08%, and the output decreased by 2.97% [2]