供需结构偏弱，沥青弱势难改

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report anticipates that the domestic asphalt futures will maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future. This is due to the significant weakening of the cost support for asphalt caused by the sharp decline in domestic and international crude oil futures prices. Meanwhile, the supply pressure of domestic asphalt remains high with a steady increase in capacity utilization, while the downstream demand has entered the off - season and the procurement rhythm has slowed down [2][3]. 3) Summary by Related Content Cost Support Weakening - Global crude oil inventories are continuously accumulating, and the expectation of supply surplus has once again dominated the crude oil futures market. US crude oil production has reached a record high, and although OPEC+ decided to suspend production increases in Q1 2026, the previous cumulative production increase has made up for the previous production cuts. The progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks has raised the expectation of Russia's crude oil return, and it is expected that over 80 million barrels of floating storage crude oil will enter the market, further intensifying the supply surplus [2]. - The weak demand from major global economies, along with the weakening of the oil market's monthly spread and refined oil cracking spread, highlights the weak supply - demand structure of the oil market. After the oil price returned to a weak trend, the cost support for asphalt futures has weakened [2]. Limited Supply Decline - In December, although some refineries such as Hebei Xinhai stopped asphalt production and some in East China maintained low - to - medium production loads, others like Guangzhou Petrochemical and Qilu Petrochemical resumed production, and Sinopec and Liaohe Petrochemical increased production. As of the week of December 12, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 92 domestic asphalt refineries was 29.9%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week, and that of 77 heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 27.8%, a 0.1 - percentage - point weekly decrease. Overall, the decline in domestic asphalt supply pressure is limited [2]. Downstream Enters Off - season - Affected by a new round of cold air, the surface construction of domestic asphalt roads has decreased, and the shipment volume in the Northeast and East China regions has significantly declined. In terms of modified asphalt, due to the expansion of the shutdown scope in the North, the supply of modified asphalt has significantly decreased. Last week, the capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic sample modified asphalt enterprises was 9.0%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week and a 0.5 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [3]. - Under the influence of weak supply and demand, the domestic asphalt social inventory has slightly decreased. The social inventory in East China has been significantly depleted because some projects are in the final stage and mainly consume inventory [3].