国际油价大幅走弱，盘面低位整理

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For PE, in December, the overall maintenance volume of PE is not high, and the planned maintenance volume in the later period is also relatively limited. The PE start - up rate is expected to continue to rise, and a new 500,000 - ton FDPE device of BASF is expected to be put into production by the end of the year. The demand side is in a weak state with the decline of downstream start - up rates. Although the social inventory of PE is decreasing, the absolute inventory levels of LL and LD are still high, and the cost support from oil - based production is weakening. In the short term, it is difficult to have substantial improvement under the supply - demand contradiction [2]. - For PP, the supply is expected to remain at a high level as the maintenance intensity weakens and the supply may increase slightly. The profit of PDH has declined to the lowest level of the year, but the marginal device shutdown is not obvious. The downstream demand has limited order follow - up, and the overall inventory level is still high. The cost support has weakened, and the short - term rebound drive is limited [3]. - The trading strategy is to hold a wait - and - see attitude for single - sided trading with the short - term trend being weak and oscillating at the bottom. For cross - period trading, there is no recommended strategy. For cross - variety trading, it is advisable to shrink the L05 - PP05 spread when it reaches a high level [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Prices and Basis: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,543 yuan/ton (-14), and that of the PP main contract is 6,256 yuan/ton (+2). The spot prices of LL in North China and East China are 6,500 yuan/ton (+0) and 6,580 yuan/ton (+0) respectively. The spot price of PP in East China is 6,200 yuan/ton (+0). The LL basis in North China is - 43 yuan/ton (+14), in East China is 37 yuan/ton (+14), and the PP basis in East China is - 56 yuan/ton (-2) [1]. - Upstream Supply: The PE start - up rate is 84.1% (+0.1%), and the PP start - up rate is 78.3% (+0.7%) [1]. - Production Profits: The PE oil - based production profit is 231.1 yuan/ton (+47.6), the PP oil - based production profit is - 388.9 yuan/ton (+47.6), and the PDH - made PP production profit is - 774.2 yuan/ton (+43.2) [1]. - Imports and Exports: The LL import profit is - 105.0 yuan/ton (+7.1), the PP import profit is - 273.0 yuan/ton (+49.4), and the PP export profit is - 11.5 US dollars/ton (-0.9) [1]. - Downstream Demand: The PE downstream agricultural film start - up rate is 46.4% (-1.7%), the PE downstream packaging film start - up rate is 49.6% (-0.6%), the PP downstream plastic weaving start - up rate is 44.1% (+0.0%), and the PP downstream BOPP film start - up rate is 62.9% (+0.3%) [1]. 3.2 Market Analysis - PE: The supply is expected to increase with low maintenance and new device commissioning. The demand is weakening as the downstream start - up rates decline. The inventory pressure is still large despite the social inventory reduction. The cost support from oil prices is weakening [2]. - PP: The supply is expected to remain high with reduced maintenance. The demand has limited order follow - up, and the inventory level is high. The cost support has weakened [3]. 3.3 Strategy - Single - sided: Wait and see, with short - term weak oscillation at the bottom [4]. - Cross - period: No strategy [4]. - Cross - variety: Shrink the L05 - PP05 spread when it reaches a high level [4].