石油沥青日报：原油价格大幅下跌，成本端驱动偏空-20251217

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, wait for a clear bottom signal and consider left - side buying opportunities at low prices [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil prices have dropped significantly, driving the cost side of asphalt negatively and causing the BU futures price to decline. The overall fundamentals of asphalt are still weak, but the gradual release of winter storage demand provides some support. If oil prices stop falling, the downside space of the asphalt market may be limited, but a rebound requires more positive factors. Potential positive factors may come from an increase in crude oil costs. If the Venezuelan crisis persists, it may lead to a decline in heavy oil supply and drive up the asphalt cost center [1] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 16th, the closing price of the main BU2602 contract in the afternoon session was 2,894 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton or 2.36% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 237,057 lots, an increase of 29,936 lots compared to the previous day, and the trading volume was 372,360 lots, an increase of 161,403 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast: 3,156 - 3,500 yuan/ton; Shandong: 2,840 - 3,270 yuan/ton; South China: 2,920 - 3,100 yuan/ton; East China: 3,100 - 3,220 yuan/ton. The spot prices in North China, Shandong, and South China decreased, while those in other regions remained stable [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a neutral stance, wait for a clear bottom signal, and pay attention to left - side buying opportunities at low prices [2] - Cross - variety: No strategy [2] - Cross - period: No strategy [2] - Spot - futures: No strategy [2] - Options: No strategy [2] Figures - The report includes figures on the spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), the closing prices of the petroleum asphalt futures index, main contract, and near - month contract, the price difference between near - month contracts, the trading volume and open interest of petroleum asphalt futures, domestic asphalt weekly production, production of independent refineries and in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China), domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and asphalt inventories in refineries and society [3]