海外市场点评：11月非农的“噪音”有多大？

Employment Data Analysis - November non-farm payrolls showed a significant drop, with a decrease of 10.5 thousand jobs in October and a further reduction of 0.6 thousand jobs in November, primarily due to federal government employment cuts[6] - Private sector job growth remained stable, averaging over 50 thousand jobs added per month in the last three months, indicating a relatively controlled employment market[6] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6% in November, the highest level since September 2021, influenced by supply-side disruptions and an increase in labor force participation to 62.5%[6][19] Wage Growth and Economic Implications - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.1% month-on-month and 3.5% year-on-year, marking the lowest growth rate since May 2021, reflecting a cooling recruitment market[6] - The decline in real wage growth is compressing consumer purchasing power, contributing to a "K-shaped" recovery in the U.S. economy[6] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts are supported by the gradual cooling of the job market, but further "bad" news may be needed to prompt additional rate cuts in January[6][9] Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Market reactions to the employment data were measured, with gold prices initially rising and the U.S. dollar index dipping below 98, but both returned to pre-release levels[6] - The expectation for a rate cut in January remains around 25%, indicating that the market does not view the employment data as significantly altering the Fed's policy trajectory[6][9] - The upcoming December employment report will be crucial for assessing the Fed's policy direction, especially if unemployment continues to rise or non-farm employment shows negative growth[9]