20251217申万期货有色金属基差日报-20251217

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - Copper: Night-time copper prices slightly declined. Concentrate supply remains tight, smelting profit is at the break - even point. Although smelting output decreased month - on - month, it still shows high growth. Power investment is stable, auto production and sales are growing, home appliance production is in decline, and the real estate market is weak. Supply disruptions in mines have shifted the global copper supply - demand outlook to a deficit. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Zinc: Night - time zinc prices closed lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees have fallen, concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and smelting output continues to grow. Galvanized sheet inventories are generally at a high level. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing, auto production and sales are growing, home appliance production is in decline, and the real estate market is weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but the current sentiment in the non - ferrous market as a whole needs to be noted. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Metal Market Data - Copper: Domestic previous day's futures closing price is 91,840 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 145 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price is 11,619 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is - 9.52 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 165,875 tons with a daily change of - 25 tons [2]. - Aluminum: Domestic previous day's futures closing price is 21,780 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 120 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price is 2,883 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is - 43.33 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 519,600 tons with a daily change of - 50 tons [2]. - Zinc: Domestic previous day's futures closing price is 23,030 yuan/ton, domestic basis is 65 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price is 3,035 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is - 31.61 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 64,475 tons with a daily change of 2,550 tons [2]. - Nickel: Domestic previous day's futures closing price is 112,290 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 2,670 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price is 14,255 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is - 190.25 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 253,392 tons with a daily change of 360 tons [2]. - Lead: Domestic previous day's futures closing price is 16,825 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 85 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price is 1,942 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is - 51.52 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 252,475 tons with a daily change of 17,725 tons [2]. - Tin: Domestic previous day's futures closing price is 320,620 yuan/ton, domestic basis is 5,820 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price is 40,955 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is 50.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 3,795 tons with a daily change of 125 tons [2].