买家恢复俄油采购，油价持续下跌

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term driving force of oil prices is downward, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The oil price has recently seen a relatively smooth decline. The starting point of the decline is that some buyers began to resume purchasing Russian oil last week. The increase in the purchase of sanctioned oil means a decrease in the purchase of compliant oil, which is bearish for oil prices. In the future, as Russia finds ways to circumvent sanctions, it is highly likely that the surplus of sanctioned oil will turn into a surplus of compliant oil. However, the geopolitical risks in Venezuela have been continuously escalating recently, and the potential risk of logistics interruption needs to be monitored [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - As of the close, the price of light crude oil futures for January 2026 delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.55 to $55.27 per barrel, a decline of 2.73%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for February delivery fell $1.64 to $58.92 per barrel, a decline of 2.71% [1] - Russian crude oil prices have fallen to the lowest level since the start of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Western sanctions have increased the discounts that the country's oil industry needs to offer, and benchmark crude oil futures have tumbled. The average selling price of crude oil shipped by Russian oil exporters from the Baltic, Black Sea, and the eastern port of Kozmino is slightly above $40 per barrel, a 28% drop from the past three months. Sanctions on oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil have further increased the discount. Western pressure on Russian oil trade has made the sale and transportation of Russian oil increasingly difficult, and relevant measures also target refineries in major buyers such as India. Additionally, global benchmark crude oil prices are also falling, with Brent crude falling below $60 per barrel on Tuesday for the first time since May [1] - Trump posted on social media that he ordered a "full and complete blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela." The fleet surrounding Venezuela will only grow larger, and the impact on them will be unprecedented until they return all the oil, land, and other assets they "stole" from the US. Trump also labeled Venezuelan President Maduro's regime a "foreign terrorist organization," accusing this "illegal" regime of using oil from the "stolen" oil fields to fund itself, drug terrorism, human trafficking, murder, and kidnapping. This move marks an escalation of the Trump administration's pressure on Maduro. Last week, the US seized a sanctioned oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela [1] - Venezuelan Vice - President and Oil Minister Rodriguez issued a government communiqué on the 15th, stating that Trinidad and Tobago had assisted the US in "stealing" Venezuelan oil tankers. The communiqué said that Trinidad and Tobago allowed the US to install military radars on its territory to besiege Venezuelan oil tankers passing by, and Trinidad and Tobago has become an accomplice of the US in its aggression against Venezuela. The Venezuelan government is aware of the Trinidad and Tobago government's participation in the recent US seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker, which is a pirate act and violates international law. The Venezuelan government decided to immediately terminate all natural gas supply contracts, agreements, and related negotiations with Trinidad and Tobago [1] - Oil prices are hovering near the lowest level since 2021. Traders are weighing the prospect of a possible cease - fire in Ukraine, which may pave the way for reducing export restrictions on Russian oil, putting more pressure on an already oversupplied market. Due to OPEC+ restoring idle production capacity and other oil - producing countries increasing production, the expectation of a global oil surplus is constantly growing, and oil is heading for an annual decline. An agreement to end the conflict may prompt the US to relax sanctions on Russia, although Moscow has basically maintained a continuous supply of crude oil since the conflict started in early 2022 [1] Investment Logic - The increase in the purchase of sanctioned oil means a decrease in the purchase of compliant oil, which is bearish for oil prices. In the future, it is likely that the surplus of sanctioned oil will turn into a surplus of compliant oil, but attention should be paid to the potential risk of logistics interruption due to the escalating geopolitical risks in Venezuela [2] Strategy - The short - term driving force of oil prices is downward, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] Risk - Downside risks: A peace agreement is reached between Russia and Ukraine, and macro black - swan events occur - Upside risks: The supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) tightens, and large - scale supply disruptions are caused by conflicts in the Middle East [4]