马士基伦敦口岸港报价2700美元/FEU，02合约估值中枢不断

1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The settlement price of the December contract is expected to be between 1600 - 1700 points, and the valuation center of the EC2602 contract is rising. The far - month contracts face the risk of valuation downward revision due to the possible resumption of the Suez Canal. The strategy suggests a volatile trend for the December contract and a slightly stronger volatile trend for the February contract, with no arbitrage strategy currently available [4][6][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotes from various shipping companies show price increases in January. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam WEEK52 quote is 1500/2340, and its Shanghai - London port quote in the first week of January is 1680/2700/2800. Maersk and MSC have issued price increase letters for January [1][2]. - Geopolitical factors: Due to the ongoing turmoil in the Red Sea, Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd have launched a Cape of Good Hope network. There is no specific time for the Gemini east - west route to return to the Red Sea. The US is investigating Israel's possible violation of the cease - fire agreement [2]. 3.2 Dynamic Supply - The average weekly capacity from the remaining 3 weeks of December is 326,000 TEU, with 386,400 TEU, 290,900 TEU, and 300,700 TEU in WEEK51/52/53 respectively. The average weekly capacity in January is 322,700 TEU, and in February is 276,700 TEU. There are 4 TBNs in January and 9 TBNs and 2 blank sailings in February, all from the OA alliance [3]. 3.3 Contract Analysis - December contract: The settlement price is calculated as the arithmetic mean of the three - phase SCFIS on December 15th and 29th. The freight rate center in the first half of December was revised down to around 2100 - 2200 US dollars/FEU. The final settlement price is estimated to be between 1600 - 1700 points [4]. - EC2602 contract: The last trading day is February 9, 2026. The settlement price reflects the spot price center at the end of January. Maersk and MSC have announced price increases in January. The high - freight maintenance situation after the pre - Spring Festival shipping peak needs attention [4]. - Far - month contracts: The possibility of the Suez Canal resuming operation in 2026 is high, which may lead to an increase in effective capacity supply and a downward pressure on freight rates, causing the valuation of far - month contracts to be revised down [6]. 3.4 Market Data - As of December 16, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 63,344 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 36,307 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided. The SCFI and SCFIS prices of different routes are also announced [7]. - In 2025, it is a big year for container ship deliveries. As of December 23, 2025, 250 container ships with a total capacity of 2.018 million TEU have been delivered [7]. 3.5 Strategy - Unilateral: The December contract shows a volatile trend, and the February contract shows a slightly stronger volatile trend. - Arbitrage: No arbitrage strategy is currently available [8].