PVC海外装置停产提振盘面情绪，现货成交清淡

Group 1: Investment Ratings and Strategies PVC - Investment Strategy: Unilateral - Oscillation; Inter - period - Wait - and - see; Inter - variety - None [4] Caustic Soda - Investment Strategy: Unilateral - Oscillation; Inter - period - Wait - and - see; Inter - variety - None [5] Group 2: Core Views PVC - PVC rebounds with the anti - involution sentiment in the macro - environment, and cost support is prominent. The news of the planned shutdown of a 450,000 - ton PVC plant in the US boosts the market sentiment, but the spot trading is weak after the price increase. The supply is expected to decrease slightly this week, and the overall supply pattern remains abundant. The downstream start - up rate generally declines, the inventory is slightly reduced but still at a high level. The comprehensive production profit of upstream PVC has decreased, and the export profit has shrunk, but the export orders have strengthened month - on - month [1][3] Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market rebounds with the anti - involution sentiment, and the supply - demand situation has slightly improved. The spot price is mainly stable, and the trading volume has improved at low prices. The inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu has decreased, but it is still at a high level compared to the same period. The supply - side start - up rate is high, and the non - aluminum demand has weakened. Attention should be paid to the price trend of liquid chlorine, the dynamics of caustic soda plants, and the implementation details of the macro - anti - involution policy [2][3] Group 3: Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures Price and Basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,399 yuan/ton (+84); the East China basis is - 19 yuan/ton (-34); the South China basis is 1 yuan/ton (-64) [1] - Spot Price: The East China calcium - carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,380 yuan/ton (+50); the South China calcium - carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,400 yuan/ton (+20) [1] - Upstream Production Profit: The semi - coke price is 780 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide price is 2,930 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide profit is 16 yuan/ton (+0); the gross profit of calcium - carbide - based PVC production is - 1,102 yuan/ton (-83); the gross profit of ethylene - based PVC production is - 520 yuan/ton (-48); the PVC export profit is 3.7 US dollars/ton (-6.9) [1] - Inventory and Start - up: The in - plant PVC inventory is 344,000 tons (+18,000); the social PVC inventory is 517,000 tons (-12,000); the start - up rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 79.13% (-2.96%); the start - up rate of ethylene - based PVC is 76.67% (+4.75%); the overall PVC start - up rate is 78.39% (-0.62%) [1] - Downstream Orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 649,000 tons (-50,000) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures Price and Basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,160 yuan/ton (-3); the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 90 yuan/ton (+34) [1] - Spot Price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 720 yuan/ton (+10); the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,140 yuan/ton (-10) [2] - Upstream Production Profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,229 yuan/ton (+31); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 665.0 yuan/ton (+71.3); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 546.96 yuan/ton (+51.25); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 280.39 yuan/ton (+20.00) [2] - Inventory and Start - up: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 457,100 tons (-47,700); the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 34,500 tons (+800); the start - up rate of caustic soda is 86.20% (+0.20%) [2] - Downstream Start - up: The start - up rate of alumina is 86.11% (-0.09%); the start - up rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 62.74% (-1.72%); the start - up rate of viscose staple fiber is 89.62% (-1.67%) [2]