海外库存激增升水转贴水

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: Neutral [6] 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas inventory surge leads to a shift from premium to discount, closing China's zinc ingot export window and suppressing zinc ingot prices. Domestic downstream replenishment enthusiasm increases as absolute prices fall, with market trading activity rising and spot premiums continuing to recover. The downward trend of mine TC persists, with domestic high - altitude mines reducing production and domestic ore supply decreasing, while smelter procurement demand remains strong. The comprehensive smelting losses of smelters widen, and December's supply may still be lower than expected. Short - term consumption resilience limits the depth of zinc price corrections, and long - term re - inflation is possible in the interest rate cut cycle [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is -$31.61/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 23,180 yuan/ton, down 290 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot premium of 85 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 23,090 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 20 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 23,090 yuan/ton, down 290 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 5 yuan/ton [2] - Futures: On December 16, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 23,310 yuan/ton, closed at 23,030 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan/ton from the previous day. The trading volume was 138,540 lots, and the open interest was 73,193 lots. The highest price reached 23,345 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,935 yuan/ton [3] - Inventory: As of December 16, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 125,700 tons, down 2,600 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 95,550 tons, up 31,075 tons from the previous day [4]