首席点评：非农有喜有忧

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various industries including finance, energy, metals, black commodities, agriculture, and shipping. It provides insights into the supply - demand dynamics, price trends, and influencing factors of different commodities and financial instruments, and offers expectations for their future performance. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1当日主要新闻关注 - International News: US November employment data showed 64,000 seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls, higher than expected. The market still anticipates two Fed rate cuts next year with a 58 - basis - point easing [6]. - Domestic News: The Social Security Fund Council emphasized learning the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, including prudent fund investment, and planned for the "15th Five - Year Plan" of the social security fund. The postal industry's business volume and revenue in the first 11 months increased year - on - year, with express delivery business showing strong growth [7]. 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - Multiple overseas markets showed price changes on December 15 - 16, 2025. For example, the S&P 500 fell 0.24%, ICE Brent crude oil dropped 2.52%, while London gold rose 0.09% [9]. 3.3主要品种早盘评论 - 金融 - 股指: A - share long - term bullish pattern is expected to be consolidated. Positive policies and Fed rate cuts may boost market risk appetite [10]. - 国债: With loose market liquidity and expectations of further easing policies, short - term treasury bond futures are supported [11]. - 能化 - 原油: SC night - session fell 2.24%. US gasoline prices dropped, and inventory data showed a complex situation. The downward trend is hard to reverse [2][12]. - 甲醇: Short - term methanol is expected to be weakly volatile due to开工 and inventory factors [13]. - 橡胶: Short - term rubber prices are expected to fluctuate widely due to supply and demand factors [14]. - 聚烯烃: Short - term focus is on cost and supply - demand digestion [15]. - 玻璃纯碱: Both are in the process of inventory digestion, and attention should be paid to industry changes and real - estate policy support [16]. - 金属 - 贵金属: Short - term fluctuations do not change the long - term upward trend due to Fed policies and employment data [17]. - 铜: Attention should be paid to supply - demand changes affected by factors such as dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [18]. - 锌: Attention should be paid to market sentiment and factors like dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [19]. - 铝: Short - term prices are expected to consolidate, and medium - to - long - term outlook is optimistic [20]. - 黑色 - 双焦: Short - term, the market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to iron - water output, downstream inventory, and steel - mill profits [3][21]. - 农产品 - 蛋白粕: US soybean prices are weak, and domestic prices may be pressured by future supply [23]. - 油脂: Short - term, they are expected to fluctuate and consolidate due to palm - oil inventory and rapeseed supply [2][24]. - 白糖: Short - term, it is expected to remain weak due to international and domestic supply - demand factors [25]. - 棉花: Supported by sales progress, planting - area news, and macro factors, it is expected to be strong [26]. - 航运指数 - 集运欧线: The market is affected by shipping companies' price - holding intentions and seasonal factors. Attention should be paid to shipping companies' cabin - opening in early January [27].