新消费行业：宏观变局下的三大趋势与投资机会

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the new consumption industry for 2025 [2] Core Insights - The new consumption sector is gaining significant market attention, with a policy framework aimed at creating three trillion-level consumption areas and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots by 2027 [4][16] - The report identifies three major trends in the new consumption industry: health-oriented consumption, new pragmatism, and emotional consumption, alongside two dimensions: smart consumption and overseas expansion [8] Summary by Sections 1. Income Growth Deceleration Period: Focus on Service Consumption and Price-Quality Ratio - The increase in per capita GDP is expected to drive the share of service consumption to rise, with a projected service consumption share of 46.11% in China by 2024, reflecting a trend similar to the U.S. and Japan during their economic growth phases [5][23] - As disposable income growth slows, consumers are expected to prioritize products with a better price-quality ratio, mirroring trends observed in Japan during its economic slowdown from 1990 to 2000 [5][26] 2. Changes in Consumer Demographics: Health and Emotional Consumption Demand - Aging populations are driving health-oriented consumption, with significant increases in healthcare spending observed in the U.S. and Japan, and similar trends expected in China as it transitions to a moderately aging society [6][46] - Generational shifts in consumer behavior are leading to increased emotional consumption, with younger generations (Y and Z) focusing on personalized and emotional experiences, as seen in Japan's evolving consumption patterns [7][74] 3. Investment Recommendations: From Frenzy to Rationality, Focus on Structural Opportunities - The investment sentiment in the new consumption sector has shifted from exuberance to caution, with a focus on sustainable business models and profitability [8] - Investors are encouraged to explore opportunities aligned with the identified trends of health, pragmatism, and emotional consumption, as well as the dimensions of smart consumption and international market expansion [8]