2025 年 11 月美国非农数据点评：美国就业：延续放缓

Employment Data - In November, the U.S. non-farm employment increased by 64,000, exceeding market expectations of 50,000[9] - October's employment figures were revised down significantly, showing a decrease of 105,000, primarily due to a one-time impact from government layoffs related to Trump's resignation plan[9] - The three-month moving average of non-farm employment is now at 22,000, indicating a continued trend of slowing job growth[14] Unemployment Rate - The unemployment rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 4.6%, slightly above the expected 4.5%[17] - The increase in the unemployment rate is largely attributed to a rise in the labor force participation rate, which increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.5%[17] - The U6 unemployment rate rose significantly from 8.0% to 8.7%, indicating increased pressure on marginal labor and part-time workers[19] Federal Reserve Outlook - The recent employment data is not expected to significantly impact the Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate cuts, as both job growth and unemployment rates showed mixed signals[20] - The market's reaction to the employment data has been muted, with a slight weakening of the dollar and a drop in 10-year Treasury yields[20] - Future expectations for rate cuts may be influenced by continued rises in unemployment and dovish signals from the new Federal Reserve chair[24] Risks - Potential political pressure from Trump could threaten the independence of the Federal Reserve[25] - There is a risk of non-linear deterioration in the unemployment rate, which could complicate economic forecasts[25]