工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 12 月 17 日）-20251217

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - On December 16, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2605 closed at 8,365 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.59%, and the position increased by 1,514 lots to 202,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon from Baichuan was 9,580 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade dropped to 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 485 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2605 closed at 58,600 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 1.48%, and the position increased by 5,174 lots to 148,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material remained stable at 52,350 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material also remained stable at 52,350 yuan/ton. The spot discount to the main contract widened to 6,300 yuan/ton [2]. - Silicon plants in the southwest region have reduced production to the expected level. However, due to the long production - reduction period, the production reduction is less than the decline in downstream procurement volume, and the market is not very sensitive to the production - reduction news. Current transactions are concentrated in hedging orders or undelivered previous orders. Industrial silicon is unlikely to show a trend in the short term and will continue to fluctuate and adjust [2]. - The exchange has taken measures such as increasing margin requirements, limiting positions, and expanding the delivery end for polysilicon to ease the intensity of squeeze - out fluctuations. Recently, there have been various speculations about the registration dynamics of the capacity storage company, and the stock and futures markets have shown different reactions. The oversupply of polysilicon in the spot market and the shortage of warehouse receipts have led to the decoupling of spot and futures operations. There is no upward driving force for the spot market, but the high virtual - to - real ratio structure provides support for the futures market in the absence of a large - scale registration of warehouse receipts [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Viewpoints - Industrial silicon and polysilicon showed different trends on December 16. Industrial silicon was weak, while polysilicon was strong. The production reduction in the southwest region did not have a significant impact on the market, and the short - term trend of industrial silicon is uncertain. The exchange's measures for polysilicon aim to stabilize the market, and the relationship between spot and futures is complex [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Industrial Silicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 15 yuan/ton to 8,365 yuan/ton. Most spot prices remained stable, and the spot premium narrowed by 15 yuan/ton to 485 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts increased by 72 to 8,815, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 6,655 tons to 43,095 tons. The total social inventory decreased by 10,100 tons to 454,300 tons [3]. - Polysilicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 570 yuan/ton to 58,600 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various types of polysilicon remained stable, and the spot discount to the main contract widened by 570 yuan/ton to 6,300 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3,640, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 40,000 tons to 109,200 tons. The total social inventory increased by 8,000 tons to 299,000 tons [3]. - Organic Silicon: The price of DMC in the East China market remained stable at 13,700 yuan/ton. The price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 15,200 yuan/ton, while the prices of other organic silicon products remained stable [3]. 3. Chart Analysis - 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices: The charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10]. - 3.2 Downstream Product Prices: The charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][15][17]. - 3.3 Inventory: The charts present the futures inventories of industrial silicon and polysilicon, the weekly industry inventories of industrial silicon, the weekly inventory changes of industrial silicon, the weekly inventories of polysilicon, and the weekly inventory of DMC [20][21][23]. - 3.4 Cost and Profit: The charts show the average cost and profit levels of industrial silicon, the weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, the processing industry profit of polysilicon, the cost and profit of DMC, and the cost and profit of aluminum alloy [25][27][29].