Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The short - term steel futures market is expected to be in a narrow - range consolidation, and the iron ore, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon futures markets are expected to fluctuate in the short term [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Research Views - Steel: The rebar futures market was in a narrow - range oscillation. The rebar 2605 contract closed at 3081 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton or 0.23% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 12,500 lots in positions. Spot prices were stable with a slight decline, and trading volume decreased. The market has expectations for the anti - involution theme, which boosts market confidence. In November, investment data continued to weaken, and crude steel and pig iron production were at low levels. The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the short - term rebar futures market is expected to be in a narrow - range consolidation [1] - Iron Ore: The main contract i2605 of iron ore futures rose to 761 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton or 1% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 240,000 lots and an increase of 10,000 lots in positions. Port spot prices increased. Supply from Australia and Brazil increased, while supply from other countries decreased. Iron - making water production decreased, and port inventories continued to increase while steel mill inventories decreased. In the short term, iron ore prices will fluctuate [1] - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures market rose. The coking coal 2605 contract closed at 1067.5 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan/ton or 0.61%, with an increase of 16,355 lots in positions. Some spot prices decreased, while some increased. Coal mines mainly focus on safety production, supply remains stable, and there is a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Downstream demand is weakening, and the short - term coking coal futures market is expected to fluctuate widely [1] - Coke: The coke futures market rose. The coke 2601 contract closed at 1514.5 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton or 0.73%, with a decrease of 2120 lots in positions. Spot prices were stable. Due to heavy pollution warnings, coke production decreased, and supply tightened. Steel mill procurement slowed down, and coke demand decreased. The short - term coke futures market is expected to fluctuate widely [1] - Manganese Silicon: On Tuesday, the manganese silicon futures price fluctuated weakly. The main contract closed at 5736 yuan/ton, down 0.69%, with an increase of 5134 lots in positions. Some regional prices decreased. The production cost is still high, but the production reduction rate has slowed down. Steel tenders are ongoing, but terminal steel demand for manganese has decreased, and inventories are at a high level. The short - term manganese silicon futures market is expected to fluctuate [1][3] - Ferrosilicon: On Tuesday, the ferrosilicon futures price fluctuated weakly. The main contract closed at 5482 yuan/ton, down 1.01%, with an increase of 716 lots in positions. Some regional prices decreased. The production cost has decreased slightly, and production is gradually decreasing. Steel tenders are ongoing, but terminal steel demand is weak, and inventories are at a high level. The short - term ferrosilicon futures market is expected to fluctuate [3] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads: Different contracts of various varieties have different spreads and their changes, such as the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar is 9.0 (unchanged), and the 5 - 10 month spread is - 31.0 (down 2.0) [4] - Basis: The basis of different contracts of various varieties and their changes are provided, for example, the basis of the 01 contract of rebar is 190.0 (up 3.0) [4] - Spot Prices: The latest spot prices and their changes in different regions are given, like the Shanghai spot price of rebar is 3280.0 (up 10.0) [4] - Profits and Spreads: Information on profits and spreads of different varieties is presented, such as the rebar futures market profit is 25.1 (down 11.7), and the coil - rebar spread is 165.0 (up 6.0) [4] 3. Chart Analysis - 3.1 Main Contract Prices: It shows the closing price trends of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][14] - 3.2 Main Contract Basis: It presents the basis trends of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [16][17][19][20][22] - 3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: It shows the spread trends of different inter - period contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [24][26][30][32][33][36][37] - 3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spreads: It presents the spread trends of different inter - variety contracts, including the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coke - iron ore ratio, coal - coke ratio, and double - silicon spread [41][43][45] - 3.5 Rebar Profits: It shows the profit trends of rebar main contracts, including futures market profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [47][50] 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng is the assistant director of the Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of the black research department, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [53] - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of the resource product research department of the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the field of power coal [53] - Liu Xi is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [53] - Zhang Chunjie is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [54]
黑色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 17 日）-20251217
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-12-17 05:09