中观景气 12 月第 3 期：消费景气线索增多，电子产业增长延续

Group 1: Downstream Consumption - Signs of increased consumer sentiment are observed, with Shanghai Disneyland's congestion index rising by 9.1% week-on-week and 75.7% year-on-year, indicating improved tourism demand due to the implementation of autumn holidays in various regions [7][9] - Movie box office revenue for the week of December 8-14 reached 717 million yuan, reflecting a 48.5% week-on-week decline but an 87.7% year-on-year increase, suggesting a strong year-on-year performance despite a seasonal drop [7] - The real estate market continues to experience low sales, with the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities down by 33.9% year-on-year, and second-hand housing transactions in key cities also declining by 34.6% [10][11] Group 2: Technology & Manufacturing - The electronic industry remains in a high-growth phase, driven by AI infrastructure investments, with DRAM memory prices for DDR4 and DDR5 averaging $50.1 and $26.2 respectively, showing a week-on-week increase of 7.8% for DDR4 [21][23] - The construction materials sector is experiencing weak demand, with rebar and hot-rolled coil prices reporting a week-on-week decline of 0.6% and 1.8% respectively, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [26][27] - Manufacturing activity is showing signs of improvement, with the operating rate for semi-steel and full-steel tires increasing by 0.7% and 0.6% respectively, although recruitment intentions among companies are slightly declining [37] Group 3: Upstream Resources - Coal prices have seen a significant decline, with the price of Q5500 thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port dropping by 5.1% week-on-week, attributed to stable supply and lack of unexpected demand [43][44] - Industrial metal prices are fluctuating at high levels, with copper and aluminum prices on the SHFE at 94,100 and 22,200 yuan per ton respectively, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.4% for copper [45][46] Group 4: Logistics and Mobility - Passenger transport demand has decreased seasonally, with the subway passenger volume in major cities down by 1.4% week-on-week, while the Baidu migration index fell by 4.2% [52][55] - Freight logistics demand is also declining, with highway truck traffic and railway freight volume down by 2.0% and 0.3% respectively, although express delivery volumes have shown slight recovery [56][59]