重卡行业11月跟踪月报：内销与出口共振，景气度持续向好-20251217

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [59]. Core Views - November sales data shows that domestic sales met expectations, while wholesale and export figures exceeded expectations [4][10]. - The overall industry performance in November indicates a positive trend, with significant year-on-year growth in production, wholesale, terminal sales, and exports [6][17]. Summary by Sections Sales Tracking - In November, wholesale sales of heavy trucks reached 113,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month growth of 65.4% and 6.6%, respectively, surpassing expectations [2][17]. - Terminal sales for November were 77,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.3% and a month-on-month increase of 9.6%, aligning with expectations [2][14]. - Export sales for November totaled 33,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 44.0% and a slight month-on-month increase of 0.7%, exceeding expectations [2][17]. Market Structure - The market share of major manufacturers in terminal sales for November was as follows: Jiefang (21.1%), Dongfeng (18.0%), Heavy Truck (16.9%), Shaanxi Heavy Truck (11.0%), and Foton (12.4%) [5][34]. - In exports, the market share for November was: Jiefang (21.2%), Dongfeng (9.3%), Heavy Truck (45.2%), Shaanxi Heavy Truck (16.2%), and Foton (5.7%) [5][36]. - The engine market share in November was led by Weichai (17.4%), followed by Cummins (15.6%) and Xichai (14.6%) [7][45]. Inventory Analysis - The total industry inventory in November increased by 0.42 million units, with a total inventory coefficient of 1.8, indicating a reasonable level [18][44]. - Channel inventory saw an increase of 0.34 million units, while enterprise inventory rose by 0.08 million units [18][44]. Structural Insights - In terms of vehicle usage, November saw better performance in engineering vehicles compared to logistics vehicles, with terminal sales of engineering vehicles at 8,500 units, up 41.2% year-on-year [23]. - The penetration rate of natural gas heavy trucks reached 25.3% in November, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.38 percentage points [26].