黑色金属数据日报-20251217

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel prices had a small rebound on Tuesday, with the futures price center slightly rising, but the spot price increase was limited, and the trading volume of building materials spot trade decreased month-on-month. The current supply-demand structure shows weak supply and demand, and the valuation is relatively low. It is not recommended to chase short positions. There is some support at the low price level, and it is necessary to wait for production cuts and observe the start of winter storage replenishment [2][3][5] - The fundamentals of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are under pressure, and the upward resistance remains strong. Although the double-control policy boosts the price sentiment, the steel price pressure pattern remains unchanged, the direct demand weakens, and the mid-term oversupply pressure persists. Recently, the supply and demand of manganese silicon are weaker than that of ferrosilicon, and the inventory accumulates significantly [5] - The spot auction of coking coal and coke has improved. The spot market has improved, with a decrease in auction flow and mixed price changes. The futures market is in a state of entanglement, and it is more likely to continue to wait for the improvement of the spot market after the rebound. Attention should be paid to whether downstream enterprises will start winter storage replenishment [5] - The molten iron output has dropped again, and the port inventory of iron ore will continue to rise under the influence of supply and demand, and the price is difficult to improve. It is expected that the molten iron will stabilize at the end of the month and recover in January, and the decline of iron ore price will slow down [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - Futures Market: On December 16th, the closing prices of far-month contracts RB2610, HC2610, etc., and near-month contracts RB2605, HC2605, etc., all showed different degrees of increase. The price center of futures contracts on Tuesday had a slight upward shift [1] - Spot Market: The spot prices of Shanghai thread steel, Shanghai hot-rolled coil, etc., also showed different degrees of increase or remained unchanged. The spot price followed the increase to a small extent, and the trading volume of building materials spot trade decreased month-on-month [1][3] - Strategy: Treat the single-side at a low level in a volatile manner; conduct rolling operations for the spot-futures positive spread of hot-rolled coils, or use option strategies to assist spot procurement [6] Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Market Situation: The double-control policy boosts the price sentiment, but the fundamentals are under pressure. The steel price pressure pattern remains unchanged, the direct demand weakens, and the mid-term oversupply pressure persists. Recently, the supply and demand of manganese silicon are weaker than that of ferrosilicon, and the inventory accumulates significantly [5] - Strategy: Go long on ferrosilicon and short on manganese silicon [6] Coking Coal and Coke - Spot Market: The market still has expectations of price cuts, but the trade price has basically covered it. On Tuesday, the spot market improved, with a decrease in auction flow and mixed price changes. The overall market trading situation has not improved significantly [5] - Futures Market: The futures market on Monday was volatile and strong. After the steel export license system was officially announced on Friday night, the coking coal and coke futures prices rebounded after pricing in the expectation of six rounds of price cuts, showing signs of stabilization, and then fell into a shock [5] - Strategy: Temporarily wait and see [6] Iron Ore - Market Situation: The molten iron output has continued to decline to about 2.29 million tons, and there are no signs of stabilization. The port inventory of iron ore will continue to rise, and the price is difficult to improve. It is expected that the molten iron will stabilize at the end of the month and recover in January, and the decline of iron ore price will slow down [5] - Strategy: Hold the previous short positions and wait until the lower limit of the range [5]