航运衍生品数据日报-20251217

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The spot freight rate of the European route has increased, with the freight rate center in late December rising by over $200 compared to early December. The leading shipping companies' price - holding actions have strengthened market confidence. The supply - demand situation shows that the seasonal stocking in Europe has increased the cargo volume and the shipping companies' loading rate. The weekly average capacity of the European route has shrunk in late December, and the effective supply is not overly loose. The resumption of shipping in the Red Sea has made limited progress, and the previous extremely pessimistic expectations in the market are gradually being revised, driving the market to fluctuate upwards. However, the strategy suggests short - selling the 02 contract with a small position at high prices. [9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shipping Freight Index - The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFIS - Northwest Europe, and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1506, 1118, 1780, 924, 2652, 1538, 1510, and 2737 respectively. The corresponding previous values are 1398, 1115, 1550, 960, 2315, 1400, 1509, and 2300, with the respective growth rates being 7.79%, 0.29%, 14.84%, - 3.75%, 14.56%, 9.86%, 0.07%, and 19.00%. [5] Shipping Derivative Contracts - For contracts EC2506, EC2608, EC2610, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604, the current values are 1290.0, 1462.4, 1041.2, 1631.5, 1686.8, and 1112.7 respectively. The previous values are 1306.7, 1479.9, 1053.8, 1649.8, 1746.0, and 1149.7, with the growth rates of - 1.28%, - 1.18%, - 1.20%, - 1.11%, - 3.39%, and - 3.22%. [5] Shipping Contract Positions - The current positions of EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604 are 2305, 1351, 4711, 2566, 32483, and 19928 respectively. The previous positions are 2335, 1441, 4739, 2724, 33065, and 19657, with the changes of - 30, - 90, - 28, - 158, - 582, and 271. [5] Shipping Contract Month - to - Month Differences - The month - to - month differences of 12 - 02, 12 - 04, and 02 - 04 are currently - 55.3, 518.8, and 574.1 respectively. The previous values are - 96.2, 500.1, and 596.3, with the changes of 40.9, 18.7, and - 22.2. [5] Market News and Trends - CMA CGM has announced that its INDAMEX route will use the Suez Canal for both forward and return voyages between India/Pakistan and the US East Coast, which is seen as a significant step in the large - scale return of container ships to the Red Sea route. The traffic through the Bab el - Mandeb Strait has reached the highest level since January 2024. The FEWB route in December has a low blank sailing rate of 0.9% and reduced capacity due to ship maintenance. Ports in Northern Europe and the Mediterranean are congested, and strong e - commerce demand supports freight rates. The TAWB route has serious congestion in Nordic and Mediterranean ports due to labor disputes, and there is a shortage of containers and trailers in many European countries. [6] EC Market Review - The EC market is in a downward trend. The spot prices in early December from MSK, HPL, OOCL, CMA, EM3, QNE, and MSC are $2500, $2350, $2300, $350, $3100, $2450, and $2450 respectively. In late December, the prices from MSK, HPL, and CMA are $2400, $2050, and $350. MSK plans to raise the price to $3500 in January. [7] Market Logic and Strategy - In the spot market, the PA alliance's low - price cargo collection in the early stage led to a large number of "rolled cargoes". The blank sailing on the FE3 route in week 51 alleviated the cargo - collection pressure, and the freight rate stabilized at $2400. The leading shipping companies' price - holding actions have strengthened market confidence. In terms of supply and demand, the seasonal stocking in Europe has increased the cargo volume, and the shipping companies' loading rate has improved. The weekly average capacity of the European route has shrunk in late December, and the effective supply is not overly loose. The resumption of shipping in the Red Sea has made limited progress, and the previous extremely pessimistic expectations in the market are gradually being revised. The strategy is to short - sell the 02 contract with a small position at high prices. [9][10]