贵金属数据日报-20251217

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, precious metal prices are expected to remain at high levels, but with significant volatility due to upcoming key events such as US DPI, PCE, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see strategy in the short term [6]. - In the long - term, the Fed is in a loose cycle, global geopolitical uncertainties are increasing, and the credit risk of the US dollar is rising. The long - term center of gold prices is likely to move upward, and long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking - On December 16, 2025, compared with December 15, the prices of London gold spot, London silver spot, COMEX gold, COMEX silver, AU2602, AG2602, AU (T + D), and AG (T + D) all declined, with decreases of - 1.3%, - 0.4%, - 1.5%, - 0.9%, - 1.2%, - 0.9%, - 1.2%, and - 1.0% respectively [5]. - The spreads and ratios of gold and silver also changed. For example, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread decreased by - 8.2%, and the silver TD - SHFE active price spread decreased by - 633.3% [5]. 3.2 Position Data - From December 12 to December 15, 2025, the positions of gold ETF - SPDR, silver ETF - SLV, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions, non - commercial short positions, non - commercial net long positions, COMEX silver non - commercial long positions, non - commercial short positions, and non - commercial net long positions all decreased to varying degrees [5]. 3.3 Inventory Data - From December 12 to December 16, 2025, SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged, while SHFE silver inventory increased by 3.84%. COMEX gold inventory remained unchanged, and COMEX silver inventory increased by 0.26% [5]. 3.4 Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - From December 12 to December 16, 2025, the US dollar/CNY central parity rate decreased by - 0.08%, the US dollar index decreased by - 0.12%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield decreased by - 0.28%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by - 0.24%, the VIX increased by 4.83%, the S&P 500 decreased by - 0.16%, and NYMEX crude oil decreased by - 1.48% [5]. 3.5 Market Review - On December 16, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.6% to 971.42 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.3% to 14,666 yuan/kilogram [5]. 3.6 Influencing Factor Analysis - US economic data, such as the cooling of the employment market and the decline in retail sales, have increased the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut, weakened the US dollar index, and boosted precious metal prices [6]. - In the short term, the precious metal market will be affected by key events, and prices are expected to fluctuate sharply [6]. 3.7 Medium - and Long - Term Views - In the long - term, due to the Fed's loose cycle, geopolitical uncertainties, and the increase in US dollar credit risk, the long - term center of gold prices is likely to move upward [6].