美国11月非农喜忧参半，失业率持续抬升

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The走势评级for the US dollar is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US employment market continues to cool down, with the unemployment rate rising for five consecutive months and wage growth slowing, which may further weaken consumption momentum. However, the resilience of new employment is maintained, and short - term market concerns about economic downward pressure are limited. More data is needed to verify the pace of the weakening employment market. Future interest rate cuts remain the baseline scenario, but the timing depends on the future weakening speed of the employment market, with room for debate. Currently, the probability of a rate cut in January has slightly increased to 25%, and the market expects 1 - 2 rate cuts next year [2][36] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US November Non - farm Employment Situation - Overall Data: The US added 64,000 non - farm jobs in November, exceeding the market expectation of 50,000. In October, there was a decrease of 105,000 jobs, mainly due to government lay - offs. The average monthly increase in the past 12 months was 78,000, indicating labor market resilience. However, the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, higher than the market expectation and the previous value. The labor participation rate slightly rebounded to 62.5%. The month - on - month hourly wage growth rate was 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.3% and the previous value. The year - on - year growth rate was 3.5%, lower than the expected and the previous value. After the data release, the US dollar index and the 10 - year Treasury yield oscillated downward, gold oscillated at a high level, and the US stock market rose first and then fell [1][8] - Industry - specific Data - Service Industry: Private service employment added 50,000 jobs, slightly down from the previous value. The main sources of new employment were education and healthcare (65,000), professional and business services (12,000), and retail (6,200). The transportation and warehousing industry laid off 18,000 employees, and the leisure and hospitality industry, which was previously a major source of new employment, also significantly laid off 12,000 employees. In November, the government sector employment decreased by 5,000, with the federal government employment continuing to decline by 6,000 [18] - Production Sector: The production sector reversed the consecutive lay - off trend and added 19,000 jobs in November. Construction added 28,000 jobs, while the mining industry laid off 4,000 and the manufacturing industry laid off 5,000. The ISM manufacturing PMI in October was 48.2, and the employment sub - item weakened to 44. The rebound in construction employment may be mainly due to the accelerated construction of data centers and power infrastructure [25] - Job Vacancy Data: In October, the number of job vacancies rebounded to 7.67 million, higher than the expected and the previous value. The number of job vacancies in the service industry slightly rebounded, with increases in wholesale, retail, and education and healthcare industries. The number of job vacancies in the production sector also slightly rebounded, with the construction job vacancies remaining at a low level and the labor demand in the manufacturing sector showing marginal improvement [29] - Wage and Working Hours Data: In November, wage growth further declined, with the month - on - month growth rate falling to 0.1% and the year - on - year growth rate dropping to 3.5%. Only the financial, leisure and hospitality, and other service industries saw a slight increase in wage growth, while the wage growth in the rest of the industries continued to cool down. The average weekly working hours were 34.3 hours, slightly higher than the expected and the previous value. Most industries saw an increase in working hours, except for the mining and logging industry [34][35] 3.2 Investment Recommendations - After the December interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by a cumulative 75bp this year. With increasing internal differences among the Fed members, the threshold for further rate cuts is higher. The November non - farm data did not significantly boost the probability of rate cuts. Coupled with the upcoming announcement of the new Fed chairman, the market's debate on the long - term rate cut path has intensified. Short - term market volatility remains difficult to reduce. Gold will oscillate at a high level, the US Treasury yield curve will steepen, the US dollar will oscillate weakly, and the US stock market will continue to oscillate weakly due to concerns about over - investment in AI [3][40]