渠道库存虚实转，犹看政策定风波

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for corn is "oscillating" [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - The willingness of channels to hold corn inventory may reach a cyclical inflection point. In the short - term, the counter - seasonal price increase in November 2025 was a correction after the channel inventory was compressed to the extreme. In the long - term, market sentiment and channel inventory demand may turn upward due to factors such as the profit - making effect of traders' inventory in 2024/2025, losses from short - selling in 2025Q4, and the lack of a basis for a unanimous bearish view on new crops in 2025/2026 [1] - Policy is likely to be the key variable in the 2025/2026 balance sheet. The policy has a large amount of grain available for auction, and import policies have a greater impact on imported grains than import profits. The amount of policy grain auctions in the first half of 2026 will affect the corn price center and the seasonal high in Q3 [1] - Under the neutral assumption, at the end of the 2025/2026 period, the negative inventory phenomenon of channels is expected to decrease significantly year - on - year. Corn may change from a net purchase of 5 million tons in the previous year to a net auction of 8 million tons. The auction volume of reserve wheat in the first half of 2026 is expected to be 15 million tons, but it is still insufficient to fully make up for the remaining gap in corn [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review: Similarities Year after Year - Since 2023, the corn price has been oscillating downward. The seasonal characteristics of corn prices in recent years have shown high consistency: prices decline during the farmers' concentrated selling season and rise after the inventory - building demand is released. There is a verification period for the balance sheet near the end of the corn market year [13] - In 2025, the price generally followed the above - mentioned seasonal pattern, but the performance after November was different. The price increased counter - seasonally in November, mainly due to the re - correction of the balance sheet and the correction of the over - decline in 2024Q3 [15][18] 3.2 History Does Not Simply Repeat Itself 3.2.1 Unchanged Aspects - The basic pattern that the corn gap can be easily filled is expected to remain unchanged in the next two years. The 2026 corn market is not expected to deviate significantly from the traditional seasonal framework of the past three years. Policy variables are likely to be the most critical factor in the 2025/2026 balance sheet [21] 3.2.2 New Variables - In 2025, the market was more cautious than ever, and the channel inventory compression reached an extreme. In the short - term, the counter - seasonal price increase in November 2025 was a correction after the channel inventory was compressed to the extreme. In the long - term, market sentiment and channel inventory demand may turn upward [25] 3.3 Supply in 2025/2026: Low Inventory Carry - over vs. New Crop Yield Increase 3.3.1 New Crop Yield Situation - The view on the new crop yield situation has changed little compared with the quarterly report in September. It is still a bumper harvest but with quality differentiation. The yield increase mainly comes from Northeast China, followed by Xinjiang, and the yield in North China is expected to be flat with a slight increase [28] 3.3.2 Inventory Carry - over - There is a contradiction between large - scale grain supply at the grass - roots level and tight downstream inventory, indicating that the carry - over inventory may be significantly lower than expected. The possible reason is that the non - existent in - transit inventory was mis - counted. It is estimated that the commercial inventory carry - over in 2024/2025 decreased by more than 10 million tons year - on - year [29][44][45] 3.3.3 No Significant Selling Pressure, Tighter Balance Sheet, and Possible Cyclical Reversal of Channel Inventory - The yield increase may not cover the decline in inventory, so the supply - demand gap of corn in 2025/2026 may not narrow year - on - year. There is expected to be no significant selling pressure in the short - term. The phenomenon of negative inventory of traders at the end of the 2025/2026 market year is expected to decrease significantly [51] 3.4 Demand in 2025/2026 3.4.1 Deep - processing - The demand for corn deep - processing is better than expected in September. The price of cassava starch has risen due to floods in Thailand, and the market share previously replaced by cassava is gradually being recovered. Although the terminal demand for deep - processing is still weak, the overall decline in the total demand for corn deep - processing this year is likely to be small [52][61] 3.4.2 Energy Feed - Pig feed demand is expected to increase cyclically year - on - year, but the increase may be limited by the decline in the feed - to - meat ratio. Poultry feed demand is expected to decrease cyclically year - on - year. Overall, the total energy demand is expected to be flat with a slight increase [62][73][76] 3.5 Policy Variables 3.5.1 Wheat Purchase and Auction - In 2025, the policy carried out a large amount of reserve purchases of wheat to achieve supply - demand balance. In 2026, the new wheat is expected to have an oversupply. The larger the wheat auction volume in the first half of 2026, the more the corn gap will be filled in advance, and the corn price center and the seasonal high in Q3 will decline [79][80] 3.5.2 Directed Rice - The possibility of a large - scale auction of directed rice in 2025/2026 is low, and even if the auction starts, the reserve price may be high [89] 3.5.3 Corn Regulatory Reserves - The imported corn reserves have a certain de - stocking pressure, and the auction volume is expected to be about 6 million tons in 2025/2026 under the neutral assumption. The domestic corn regulatory reserves have no de - stocking pressure and have room for further reserve increase [90] 3.5.4 Imported Grains - In recent years, imports have been more affected by policies. In the new year, the supply of overseas corn is expected to be sufficient, and the main influencing factor for imported grains is still expected to be policy. The import volume of corn is expected to increase year - on - year on a low - base, while the import volume of miscellaneous grains is expected to decline year - on - year [96][100][101] 3.6 Expectations for 2026/2027: Slight Yield Increase + Cost Increase - The corn planting area in 2026/2027 is expected to be flat with a slight increase. Under the neutral expectation, the yield per unit area is expected to be basically flat year - on - year. The Heilongjiang port collection cost is expected to increase year - on - year and may return to over 2,000 yuan/ton. The possibility of a unanimous bearish view on new crops is expected to decrease, and the willingness of traders to hold grain may increase year - on - year [113][119][120] 3.7 Balance Sheet 3.7.1 Wheat Balance Sheet Adjustment and Forecast - In the 2025/2026 wheat year, the feed demand increased year - on - year, and the policy carried out a large amount of reserve purchases. It is expected that the auction volume of reserve wheat in the first half of 2026 will be about 15 million tons, and most of it may flow into the feed market. Under the neutral expectation, wheat will have a restorative yield increase in 2026/2027 [125][126][127] 3.7.2 Corn and Energy Raw Material Balance Sheet Adjustment and Forecast - The carry - over inventory of corn in 2024/2025 is significantly revised downwards, and the domestic corn supply in the new year is expected to decrease by about 4 million tons year - on - year. The import volume of corn is expected to increase slightly year - on - year, and the total demand change is expected to be relatively small. Corn is expected to have a net auction of about 8 million tons in the new year. The ending commercial inventory of corn in 2025/2026 is expected to increase by about 9 million tons year - on - year [128][129][133] 3.8 Price Outlook and Investment Suggestions 3.8.1 Price Outlook - The absolute valuation of corn in 2025/2026 depends on the auction volume of policy grains and the increase in valuation due to the recovery of the channel's willingness to hold grain. Under the neutral assumption, the auction volume of reserve wheat in the first half of 2026 may not be sufficient to fully make up for the corn gap. The 07 and 09 contracts of corn may have a bottom support of 2,200 - 2,250 yuan/ton, and the high point of the futures price may be 2,300 - 2,350 yuan/ton. The price is expected to have a seasonal decline in the future, and there is still room for the price to strengthen after the decline in 2026Q1 under the neutral and optimistic assumptions [137][138][140] 3.8.2 Investment Suggestions - In the spread strategy, the logic of the channel's inventory - building demand is expected to drive the 3 - 7 and 3 - 9 contracts to show a reverse spread during the farmers' selling season. In the unilateral strategy, short - term opportunities to short the 03 and 05 contracts at high prices can be considered, and long - term opportunities to long the 07 and 09 contracts at low prices can be considered. It is recommended to make decisions based on driving factors [142]