油价大幅下挫打击市场信心，聚酯受成本拖累

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided in the content - Core view of the report: The sharp decline in oil prices has hit market confidence, and polyester has been dragged down by costs. The supply and demand situation, inventory status and price trends of PX, PTA and polyester in the market are analyzed, and the future price trends of PX and PTA are predicted [2][3][53] Group 2 1. Daily market summary - PX&PTA: On December 16, the PX main contract closed at 6,744.0 yuan/ton, down 0.59% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -180.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,668.0 yuan/ton, up 0.86% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -58.0 yuan/ton. The closing price of the Brent crude oil main contract was 60.36 US dollars per barrel, and WTI closed at 56.68 US dollars per barrel. The total turnover of the Light Textile City was 9.78 million meters, with an average turnover of 8.2507 million meters on the 15th [2] - Polyester: On December 16, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,106.0 yuan/ton, up 0.13% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,265.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a basis of 159.0 yuan/ton. The average daily trading volume of the Light Textile City (MA15) increased significantly from 7.254 million meters to 8.2507 million meters, indicating strong downstream demand. The inventory of polyester staple fiber was 4.41 days, far lower than the historical average, indicating tight supply; the inventory of polyester filament POY was 16.7 days, roughly normal; the inventory of FDY was 22.2 days and the inventory of DTY was 23.9 days, both may be slightly higher than the historical average, indicating the risk of inventory backlog [5] 2. Industrial chain price monitoring - PX: The main contract price of PX futures was 6,744 yuan/ton, down 0.59% from the previous day; trading volume decreased by 7.74%, and open interest decreased by 2.89%. The CFR price of the Chinese main port and the FOB price of South Korea in the PX spot market remained unchanged. The PX basis increased by 18.18% [7] - PTA: The main contract price of PTA futures was 4,668 yuan/ton, up 0.86% from the previous day; trading volume increased by 72.20%, and open interest increased by 113.51%. The CFR price of the Chinese main port in the PTA spot market remained unchanged. The PTA basis decreased by 222.22%, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 11.76%, the 5 - 9 spread increased by 4.17%, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 50.00%. PTA import profit increased by 0.57% [7] - Short - fiber: The main contract price of short - fiber futures was 6,106 yuan/ton, up 0.13% from the previous day; trading volume decreased by 7.61%, and open interest decreased by 3.13%. The spot price in the East China market remained unchanged. The PF basis decreased by 4.79%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 43.75%, the 5 - 9 spread increased by 37.50%, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 40.00% [7] - Other products: The prices of Brent crude oil, US crude oil, CFR Japanese naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY and polyester FDY remained unchanged. The processing spreads of naphtha, PX, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester staple fiber, polyester POY, polyester DTY and polyester FDY remained unchanged, while the PTA processing spread increased by 2.54%. The total trading volume of the Light Textile City decreased by 7.47%, the trading volume of long - fiber fabrics decreased by 6.14%, and the trading volume of short - fiber fabrics decreased by 13.22%. The load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged. The inventory of polyester staple fiber decreased by 30.88%, the inventory of polyester POY increased by 2.45%, the inventory of polyester FDY increased by 4.72%, and the inventory of polyester DTY decreased by 1.65% [7][8] 3. Industrial dynamics and interpretation - Macro - dynamics: On December 16, Argentina planned to expand the fluctuation range of the foreign exchange rate monthly in line with the increase in CPI from 2026; the competition for the candidate for the Fed Chairman intensified, and Hassett faced opposition from senior officials around Trump; New York Fed President Williams and Boston Fed President Collins supported a December rate cut, and Fed Governor Milan thought the Fed's policy stance was too tight; India's gold imports in November decreased by about 60%; Industrial and Commercial Bank of China adjusted the personal precious metal trading business on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. On December 15, Fed's Goolsbee said to wait for more data before cutting rates, and expected more rate cuts in 2026; Schmid thought inflation was still too high; Paulson was more concerned about employment risks; Trump preferred former Fed Governor Warsh or White House National Economic Council Director Hassett to succeed the Fed Chairman; the People's Bank of China said to flexibly and efficiently use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [9] - Supply - demand - demand: On December 16, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 9.78 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 7.47%. The trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 7.8 million meters, and the trading volume of short - fiber fabrics was 1.97 million meters [10] Future price judgment - Supply side: PX device operating rate may be high or supply may increase, as the falling PX price and negative basis imply sufficient supply in the spot market. PTA supply may be tight or the operating rate may be low, as the rising PTA price indicates [53][55] - Demand side: Although the polyester operating rate is not provided, the significantly higher trading volume in the Light Textile City than the average indicates strong downstream textile demand, which drives polyester and PTA demand. The high trading volume in the Light Textile City implies good terminal demand [58] - Inventory side: Although the PTA factory inventory is not provided, strong demand may lead to a decrease in inventory, which is favorable for prices [59] - Overall: PX supply may be loose, and its price may continue to be pressured with a slight downward risk; PTA demand is strong, supply may be tight, and its price may rise [60][61]