电解铜供应长期仍存缺口预期，9万上方仍旧强势

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report predicts that copper prices will remain in a low - level oscillation in the next one to two weeks. The price range is expected to be between 91,000 - 93,000 yuan/ton. Supply - side inventory increases and potential capacity expansion are putting pressure on prices, while the demand side is affected by weak Chinese data and substitution risks, and macro sentiment is dominated by the uncertainty of US non - farm payrolls and CPI data [3][62]. 3. Section Summaries Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - Main Contract and Basis: The SHFE price of the main contract dropped slightly from 92,280 yuan/ton on December 15th to 91,870 yuan/ton on December 16th, a decline of 0.44%. The basis weakened as the discounts of premium copper, flat - priced copper, and wet - process copper deepened, and the LME(0 - 3) discount changed from 20.69 US dollars/ton on December 10th to - 4.39 US dollars/ton on December 15th [1][59]. - Position and Trading Volume: LME positions increased by 2,912 lots to 351,056 lots on December 15th, indicating an expansion in position volume. However, the SMM Yangshan copper premium market had a cold offer on December 16th, with weak spot trading and a contraction in trading volume [1][59]. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - Supply Side: There is potential for increased supply. On December 15th, Nyrstar reached an agreement with Korea Zinc involving US mines and smelters, expected to be completed in 2026. Fortescue acquired Alta Copper Company, and Hubei Zeming's 50,000 - ton anode copper project is advancing. LME inventory increased from 42,226 tons on December 15th to 45,784 tons on December 16th, an increase of 8.43%, and COMEX inventory also rose, showing supply pressure [2][60]. - Demand Side: Demand is weak. China's industrial output and retail sales data were below expectations. Asia - Pacific Technology's "aluminum replacing copper" project in the home appliance field may substitute some copper demand. Although Xiaomi's Wuhan smart home appliance factory was put into operation and Gree Electric Appliance is developing robot parts, the SMM North China electrolytic copper market had low activity and strong downstream wait - and - see sentiment [2][60]. - Inventory Side: Overall inventory increased. LME and COMEX inventories rose, while SHFE inventory remained stable at 165,875 tons, suggesting a loose supply - demand pattern [2][61]. Price Trend Judgment It is expected that copper prices will remain in a low - level oscillation in the next one to two weeks. The supply - side inventory increase and potential capacity expansion are pressuring prices, the demand side is affected by weak Chinese data and substitution risks, and macro sentiment is dominated by the uncertainty of US non - farm payrolls and CPI data. The copper price is expected to range between 91,000 - 93,000 yuan/ton [3][62].