2026年中国货币政策展望：如何理解适度宽松

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the central bank may focus on structural monetary policy, while aggregate tools still need to be eased. The PBoC will implement an appropriately accommodative monetary policy and maintain relatively accommodative financing conditions [2][3]. - Weak financing demand, high real interest rates, and monetary - fiscal coordination require aggregate tools to play a role, and constraints from banks' net interest margins and Fed policies may ease. It is expected that there will be 1 - 2 interest rate cuts (10 - 20BP) and a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut of 25 - 50BP (the PBoC's resumption of government bond trading has reduced the probability and magnitude of an RRR cut) [2][3]. - The PBoC's bond purchases may cap the upper limit of bond market interest rates, and the implementation of aggregate tools is likely to drive the bond market higher [2][3]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 The Economy Requires a Moderately Accommodative Monetary Policy - Fundamental data still requires further recovery, and financing demand remains weak. In October 2025, the Manufacturing PMI, Manufacturing PMI Production Index, and Manufacturing PMI New Orders Index were below the 50 - point threshold and declined from September. The year - on - year growth of total loans of financial institutions in September 2025 decelerated, suggesting that overall financing demand is subdued [13]. - "Anti–involution" measures and holiday - driven consumption supported a month - on - month increase of October's inflation, but overall price levels are expected to recover moderately. PPI negative growth has narrowed, and CPI and core CPI in October grew year - on - year, likely boosted by holiday spending [14]. 3.2 Real Interest Rates Remain Relatively High - China's real interest rates remain elevated, with the real rate as of September at 2.16%, higher than the U.S. level of 1.16%. Low inflation has kept real interest rates high, discouraging corporate investment and household consumption. In 2026, monetary policy may continue to lower real interest rates through further RRR cuts and interest rate cuts [21]. 3.3 Monetary Policy Needs to Coordinate with Proactive Fiscal Policy - In 2026, central - government leveraging will continue to require relatively low financing costs. The central government's leverage ratio has risen notably in recent years but remains low relative to households. Both central and local government bond issuance have shown an upward trend, and this year's deficit - to - GDP ratio target has been raised to 4%. Fiscal expansion requires monetary policy to maintain low financing costs and avoid crowding - out effects [25]. - The recommendations for the Fifteenth Five - Year Plan call for strengthening coordination between fiscal and monetary policy, including raising the proportion of central fiscal expenditure and enhancing fiscal - monetary coordination [26]. 3.4 Focus on Structural Monetary Policy In 2026 - In 2026, structural monetary policy tools may still take precedence. Given the structural imbalances in the economy, these tools can provide targeted support to major strategies, priority areas, and weak links [30]. - The recovery of banks' net interest margins and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts will help expand the room for China's aggregate monetary policy tools. Deposit rate reductions have alleviated pressure on banks' funding costs, and the constraints from the exchange rate and the China - US interest rate spread on further rate cuts have weakened [31]. - Regarding aggregate monetary policy tools, it is expected that there will be 1 - 2 additional rate cuts of about 10 - 20 basis points in 2026, and the probability and magnitude of RRR cuts may decline, likely in the range of 25 - 50 basis points [37]. 3.5 The PBoC's CGB Purchases May Support A Steeper Yield Curve - After the PBoC initiated government bond purchases, the probability of a steeper yield curve has increased. In 2024, the PBOC's bond purchases concentrated in short - term bonds, driving a decline in short - end yields and steepening the curve. In 2025, the strongest net buying pressure was still in bonds with maturities within three years, so the likelihood of further curve steepening remains high [40].