Dong Fang Jin Cheng·2025-12-17 06:25Report Summary 1. Core Views - The National Financial System Work Conference emphasized the need to effectively carry out key financial tasks in 2026, including risk prevention, regulatory strengthening, and promotion of high - quality development [3]. - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, using various tools like reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and focus on promoting economic growth and price stability [5]. - The Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts, with some opposing due to concerns about inflation [9]. 2. Domestic News 2.1 Policy - related - At the National Financial System Work Conference, measures were proposed to prevent and resolve risks in local small and medium - sized financial institutions, real estate enterprises, and local government financing platforms, and to strengthen financial supervision and promote high - quality development [3]. - The National Development and Reform Work Conference summarized 2025 work and set nine key tasks for 2026 [4]. - The central bank will continue the moderately loose monetary policy, using the integrated effect of existing and new policies and multiple monetary policy tools [5]. - The National Financial Supervision and Administration总局 issued the "Interim Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Commercial Bank Custody Business" to standardize the custody business of commercial banks [7]. - Three departments jointly issued a notice to boost consumption by strengthening financial support [7]. 2.2 Economic Data - As of the end of November 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 440.07 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. The cumulative increase in social financing scale in the first 11 months was 33.39 trillion yuan, 3.99 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [6]. - China's economic aggregate is expected to reach about 140 trillion yuan this year [8]. 3. International News - Fed officials debated whether interest rate cuts would harm inflation, and there were differences among next year's voting members on policy [9]. 4. Commodities - On December 12, WTI January crude futures fell 0.28% to $57.44 per barrel, down about 4.4% for the week; Brent February crude futures fell 0.26% to $61.12 per barrel, down about 4.1% for the week. COMEX February gold futures rose 0.35% to $4328.3 per ounce, up 2% for the week. NYMEX natural gas prices fell 3.14% to $4.101234 per ounce [10]. 5. Fundamentals 5.1 Open - market Operations - On December 12, the central bank conducted 1205 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 1398 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net withdrawal was 193 billion yuan [12]. 5.2 Fund Rates - On December 12, DR001 decreased by 0.21bp to 1.275%, and DR007 increased by 1.75bp to 1.469%. Other rates also showed different changes [13][14]. 6. Bond Market Dynamics 6.1 Interest - rate Bonds - On December 12, the bond market weakened. The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 rose 2.75bp to 1.8425%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond 250215 rose 3.35bp to 1.9165%. There were also auctions of 2 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds [15][17]. 6.2 Credit Bonds - On December 12, 5 bonds had a trading price deviation of more than 10%. "21 Vanke 02" fell more than 17%, while some bonds of Shimao and Baolong rose significantly. There were also credit - related events such as Zheng Rong being listed as a dishonest executor [17][18]. 6.3 Convertible Bonds - On December 12, the A - share market rose, and the convertible bond market also followed. The CSI Convertible Bond, Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond, and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Convertible Bond indices rose 0.35%, 0.38%, and 0.30% respectively. There were new listings, price increases and decreases of individual bonds, and various events such as proposed price adjustments and early redemptions [19][20][26]. 6.4 Overseas Bond Markets - In the US bond market on December 12, the yield of the 2 - year US Treasury remained unchanged at 3.52%, while other maturities generally rose. The 10 - year TIPS break - even inflation rate rose 1bp to 2.26%. In the European bond market, the 10 - year government bond yields of major European economies generally rose [23][27][28].