2025年11月经济数据点评：供强需弱下经济内部的结构性分化

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The economic structure shows internal differentiation under the situation of strong supply and weak demand in November 2025. Although there are challenges, the transformation of new and old driving forces has structural highlights, and it is expected that the annual economic development target can be achieved with the continuous policy support. In the bond market, bond yields are expected to rise trend - wise due to the revision of economic expectations [5][7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 November Economic Data Focus - Industrial Added Value: Affected by insufficient domestic demand and the high - base effect, the year - on - year growth of industrial added value in November was lower than expected. The year - on - year growth was 4.8%, 0.1 pct lower than the previous value, and lower than the median and average forecasts of 18 institutions. However, the month - on - month growth was 0.44%, 0.27 pct higher than the previous value, showing some month - on - month recovery [4]. - Consumption and Export: Consumption and export data showed a differentiated trend. The year - on - year growth of social retail sales in November was 1.3%, 1.6 pct lower than the previous value, reflecting insufficient domestic demand. The year - on - year growth of exports was 5.9%, 7.0 pct higher than the previous value [5]. - Investment: Fixed - asset investment was under pressure. The cumulative year - on - year decrease was 2.6%, 0.9 pct lower than the previous value. Real estate investment continued to bottom out, with a year - on - year decrease of 15.9% from January to November, and the decline was 1.2 pct larger than that from January to October [5][6]. 3.2 Structural Highlights in the Transformation of New and Old Driving Forces - Investment Structure Optimization: The cumulative year - on - year growth of investment in high - tech services was 4.1%, accounting for 5.4% of total service industry investment, 0.6 pct higher than the same period in 2024. - Growth of New - Quality Productivity Industries: The cumulative year - on - year growth of the added value of large - scale high - tech manufacturing and intelligent consumer equipment manufacturing was 9.2% and 7.6% respectively. - Stabilizing Role of Equipment Manufacturing: In November, the year - on - year growth of the added value of large - scale equipment manufacturing was 7.7%, and the cumulative added value accounted for 36.4% of all large - scale industries, 1.8 pct higher than the whole year of 2024, and it has exceeded 30% for 33 consecutive months [7]. 3.3 Bond Market Viewpoint - It is maintained that in the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly, structural problems such as prices are expected to improve trend - wise, and the bond - stock allocation will continue to switch, with bond yields expected to rise continuously [8].