乙二醇利空兑现，关注估值低位反弹可能性

Price Trend Judgment - The price of ethylene glycol futures has been rising recently, but there is pressure on the fundamentals, and the price is likely to fluctuate. The reasons are as follows: on the cost side, the profits of coal-based and natural gas-based production have deteriorated, indicating a possible increase in costs; the profits of ethylene-based production have improved, possibly due to a decrease in ethylene costs. On the demand side, the loads of polyester factories and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms are stable, with no significant changes in demand. In terms of inventory, the port inventory has increased, indicating an oversupply pressure [39][41][45]. Ethylene Glycol Futures Market Data Change Analysis - Main Contract and Basis: The price of the main contract rose by 49 yuan to 3,700 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose by 40 yuan to 3,670 yuan/ton. The basis widened from -21 yuan to -30 yuan (the futures premium increased) [36][24][25]. - Position and Trading Volume: The trading volume increased significantly by 42.01% to 229,814 lots, and the position decreased significantly by 15.82% to 170,475 lots, indicating active trading, but the decrease in position may mean that some positions were closed [36][29]. Industrial Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Change Analysis - Supply Side: The overall operating rate remained stable at 61.13%, with the oil-based operating rate at 71.18% and the coal-based at 49.34%, both showing no changes. In terms of profits, the profits of ethylene-based production improved (e.g., SD oxidation method improved by 97 yuan), but the profits of coal-based and natural gas-based production deteriorated. This may affect future supply, but the current operating rate is stable [37][26][30]. - Demand Side: The load of polyester factories was 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 63.43%, both showing no changes. The demand was stable [38][40]. - Inventory Side: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 25,000 tons to 844,000 tons, a 3.05% increase, and the inventory in Zhangjiagang slightly decreased by 2,000 tons to 318,000 tons. The inventory pressure increased [39][40].