双焦：反内卷政策延续，盘面维持区间震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the coking coal and coke markets showed a pattern of weak operation in the first half and a rebound in the second half. The overall supply - demand situation was loose, and it is expected that the supply - demand pattern in the second half of 2025 will continue in 2026. The prices of coking coal and coke will fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the anti - involution policy, the supply of imported coal, and terminal consumption [2][15][79] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents I. Review of Futures Market Trends and Spot Price Tracking - In 2025, the coking coal and coke markets continued the weak pattern of 2024 in the first half, with prices falling due to high inventory, weak downstream demand, and other factors. In the second half, due to the anti - involution policy, coal production decreased, and the supply - demand pattern improved, leading to a price rebound. However, in November, the prices declined due to the off - season of terminal demand [8][9] - Spot prices of coking coal first fell and then rose, while coke prices experienced multiple rounds of price cuts in the first half and price increases in the second half, with a complex price adjustment process throughout the year [12][13] II. Coking Coal Supply Analysis 1. Slight Increase in Domestic Coking Coal Production, with Output Contraction in the Second Half - In 2025, the overall supply of domestic coking coal was loose. From January to October, the cumulative output of raw coal was 397,319 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. The output of raw coal in Shanxi had a significant driving effect, with a cumulative output of 108,486 million tons from January to October, a year - on - year increase of 3.0% [17] - The operating rate and daily output of mines and coal washing plants increased after the Spring Festival, but decreased from May to June due to safety and environmental protection inspections. In the second half, due to the anti - involution policy, the operating rate and output remained low [16][18] - The coal washing process showed a contraction trend, with the operating rate of 314 sample coal washing plants lower than the previous year. The daily output of clean coal remained low and fluctuated little [21] - It is expected that the growth rate of raw coal output will slow down in 2026, and the supply will remain at a low level, mainly for energy supply security. Attention should be paid to the raw coal production in Shanxi, Xinjiang and other regions [24] 2. Year - on - Year Contraction of Imported Coking Coal, with Mongolian and Russian Coal Dominating - From January to October 2025, the cumulative import of coking coal was 94.16 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.8%. Mongolia and Russia were the top two import sources, accounting for nearly 80% [26] - Mongolian coal imports from January to October were 47.71 million tons, ranking first. Although there was a slight year - on - year decrease, the volume was still at a relatively high level in recent five years. After the second half of the year, imports increased due to the price difference, but decreased in October due to political instability and then recovered [29][31] - Russian coal imports from January to October were 26.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.46%. Although there was a decline in May, the long - term contract volume was relatively stable. Russia may increase its coal exports to China in the future [32] - US coal imports were severely hit, and imports basically stopped from May, with a cumulative import of only 2.91 million tons from January to October, a year - on - year decrease of 65.7% [32] - It is expected that in 2026, with stricter domestic coal production control, the increase in coking coal supply will mainly come from overseas imports, and the main sources will still be Mongolia and Russia [37] III. Coke Supply Analysis - Coke supply showed a self - regulating trend affected by corporate profitability and operating pressure, but the overall supply was still loose. In 2025, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises hovered around the break - even point, but production willingness was not greatly affected [38] - The production capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was stable at around 70% - 75%, and the daily output of coke fluctuated in the range of 62 - 670,000 tons. The production capacity utilization rate of steel mills' self - owned coking plants decreased in the second half of the year, and the daily output also declined significantly [40] - It is expected that if steel demand continues to weaken in 2026, coke over - capacity will face pressure. Due to the large base of coking production capacity, the possibility of large - scale production cuts is low, and coke supply will remain rigid and relatively loose [46] IV. Double - Coking Demand Analysis 1. International Demand: Tense International Trade Situation Affects Coke Exports - In 2025, coke exports continued to decline. From January to October, the cumulative export volume was about 6.22 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.0%. The main export market was Southeast Asia, accounting for 56% [48] - If overseas steel demand does not improve significantly in 2026 and competition in Southeast Asian markets intensifies, China's coke exports will still be under pressure [52] 2. Domestic Demand: Good Resilience of Downstream Rigid Demand, Weak Terminal Real Estate Demand - In 2025, the blast furnace operating rate and daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills in the country were generally high. Although terminal demand was weak in the second half of the year, molten iron output still had resilience. However, from January to October, the cumulative output of pig iron and crude steel decreased slightly year - on - year [53][57] - Terminal demand was weak, mainly affected by weak domestic demand and the continuous downturn of the real estate market. From January to October, real estate development investment, new construction area, and completion area all decreased significantly year - on - year [61] - In 2026, the risk of loose supply and demand will continue. Steel mills may face phased production contraction pressure, and attention should be paid to policy support for the real estate market and the implementation of the crude steel reduction system [62][65] V. Double - Coking Inventory Analysis 1. Coking Coal: Mine - End Inventory Declined from High Levels, and Downstream Maintained Low Inventory - In the first half of 2025, the coking coal inventory structure was characterized by high mine - end inventory, stable mid - stream inventory, and low terminal inventory, which suppressed prices. In the second half, mine - end inventory decreased significantly, and the inventory structure improved [66] - The clean coal inventory of sample mines decreased in the second half of the year after reaching a high level in the first half. The inventory of sample coal washing plants was relatively stable in the second half after being gradually depleted in the first half. The inventory of downstream independent coking plants and steel mills was relatively stable in the second half after being in a state of depletion or low - level fluctuation in the first half [66][67] - Coking coal port inventory decreased in the first half and remained stable in the second half, at a medium - level in the past five years [69] 2. Coke: Coking Plant Inventory Depleted, and Steel Mill and Port Inventory Remained High - In the first half of 2025, coke inventory pressure was significant, with coking enterprise inventory reaching a high level before the Spring Festival and remaining high throughout the first half. In the second half, coking plant inventory decreased rapidly but began to accumulate in November [73] - Currently, coking plant inventory is at a medium - low level in the same period of previous years but is accumulating. Steel mill coke inventory is at a high level in the past four years, and port coke inventory is at a high level overall [75] VI. Outlook - In terms of supply in 2026, domestic coking coal supply growth is limited due to policy influence, and the increase mainly comes from imports, with Mongolian and Russian coal accounting for about 80% [79] - In terms of demand, domestic steel demand is under pressure, mainly relying on the export market for growth. The overall supply - demand pressure of coking coal and coke still exists, and prices will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the anti - involution policy [79]