美国10-11月非农就业点评：年初将博弈降息

Employment Data - In November, the U.S. added 64,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 50,000[2] - October saw a decrease of 105,000 non-farm jobs, with August and September data revised down by 33,000[2] - The unemployment rate in November rose to 4.6%, above the expected 4.5% and the previous month's 4.4%, marking the highest level since October 2021[2] Labor Market Insights - The labor force participation rate in November was 62.5%, slightly above the expected and previous month's 62.4%[2] - Average weekly hours remained stable at 34.3 hours in November, compared to 34.2 hours in October[2] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.1% month-on-month in November, below the expected 0.3% and down from 0.4% in October, averaging around 0.3% over the two months[2] Sector Performance - Government employment saw significant volatility, with a drop of 157,000 jobs in October, narrowing to a decrease of 5,000 in November[3] - Private sector job additions were relatively stable, with 53,000 in October and 68,000 in November, indicating resilience in the labor market despite government disruptions[3] Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, major asset prices showed narrow fluctuations, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones down by 0.2% and 0.6% respectively, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.2%[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 3.5 basis points to 4.14%, and the dollar index decreased by 0.1% to 98.2[4] Interest Rate Outlook - The implied probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January remains around 24%, with expectations for two rate cuts throughout 2026[4] - The upcoming January meeting will be crucial, with additional employment and inflation data expected before the decision[5]