汽车行业2026年度投资策略：洞察周期脉络，把握智能主线

Core Insights - The automotive sector is transitioning from a purely domestic demand-driven model to a multifaceted approach that includes overseas expansion, premiumization, and smart technology integration, with a focus on AI as a key growth driver for 2026 [3][10]. Summary by Sections Overall Market Outlook - Domestic demand for passenger vehicles may face pressure, with a projected registration volume of 22.6 million units in 2026, down 3.4% year-on-year. Exports are expected to reach 6.8 million units, up 17.2% year-on-year, while wholesale volume is forecasted at 29.41 million units, a slight increase of 0.7% [6][32]. - Heavy-duty trucks are anticipated to see a domestic retail sales volume of 695,000 units in 2026, down 13.2% year-on-year, with exports of 365,000 units, up 10% [6][40]. - The motorcycle industry is expected to continue its recovery, with total sales projected at 23.44 million units in 2026, reflecting a 7% year-on-year increase [6]. Main Line 1: Overseas Expansion - The overseas market presents significant growth potential, with a focus on electric vehicle (EV) exports. Excluding China, the U.S., and Japan, the potential for EV exports is expected to triple, with a forecast of 3.38 million units exported in 2026 [7]. - Domestic parts manufacturers are leveraging their technological and cost advantages to penetrate global supply chains, particularly benefiting from the growth of the European EV market [7]. - Heavy-duty truck exports are projected to reach 365,000 units in 2026, while bus exports are expected to grow by 15% [7]. Main Line 2: High-End Vehicles and Domestic Substitution - The high-end and luxury passenger vehicle markets are less affected by economic downturns, presenting opportunities for domestic substitution [8]. - The automotive parts sector is expected to benefit from technological advancements, with significant growth anticipated in areas such as magnesium alloys and smart driving components [8]. - The penetration rate of domestic parts in certain categories, such as seats and airbags, is expected to increase from approximately 10% to over 30% [8]. Main Line 3: Embracing AI - The production of humanoid robots is entering a new phase, with significant growth expected in 2026 as Tesla prepares for mass production [9]. - The liquid cooling sector is poised for explosive growth, with strong applicability in both automotive and server cooling systems [9]. - The smart driving market is entering a phase of affordability, with penetration rates expected to accelerate between 10% and 50% [9]. Investment Recommendations - The automotive sector is advised to focus on identifying turning points in domestic demand while leveraging opportunities in overseas markets, high-end vehicle segments, and AI-driven transformations [10].