豆油期货周报-20251217

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - From December 8 - 12, 2025, the soybean oil futures market showed a volatile downward trend with a significant price drop, a substantial increase in the main contract's open interest, and a firm spot price, resulting in a high basis. The market has large long - short differences. The short logic is the high domestic commercial inventory of soybean oil and the weak performance of related international palm oil markets, while the long logic is the potential for futures price repair due to the high spot premium and potential pre - holiday stocking demand. The reduced expectation of the US biodiesel policy's positive impact also weakened the upward driving force [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Contract Market: The soybean oil futures market showed a volatile downward trend. The main contract y2605 closed at 7,994 yuan/ton, down 88 yuan/ton from last week. The trading volume was 1,125,831 lots, and the open interest was 592,514 lots, an increase of 74,932 lots [3]. - Variety Price: The total trading volume of soybean oil contracts was 1,764,400 lots, and the total open interest was 827,587 lots, an increase of 9,865 lots compared to last week [5]. - Related Market: The total trading volume of soybean oil options was 174,652 lots, the open interest was 93,424 lots, an increase of 5,154 lots, and the number of exercised options was 5 lots [6]. 3.2 Spot Situation - As of Friday of the current week, the spot price of Grade - 1 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,480 yuan/ton, the settlement price of the main contract y2605 was 8,016 yuan/ton, and the basis was 464 yuan/ton [7]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - On December 11, commodity funds net - sold 3,500 lots of CBOT soybean futures contracts, 1,500 lots of corn futures contracts, 2,500 lots of soybean meal futures contracts, and 500 lots of soybean oil futures contracts, and net - bought 1,000 lots of wheat futures contracts [9]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The soybean oil market is expected to enter a high - volatility stage. The core contradiction is how to narrow the gap between the "extremely high basis" and the "high - inventory reality" through price movements. The possibility of the spot price falling towards the futures price to repair the basis is greater. Attention should be paid to the start and intensity of pre - holiday stocking, international crude oil prices, the US RVO final plan, South American soybean产区 weather, and Malaysian palm oil production and inventory [10].