鸡蛋市场的缩量逻辑与矛盾叙事

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "volatile" rating for the egg market [5] Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the egg industry entered a deep downward cycle due to oversupply, with continuous losses and accelerated capacity reduction. By Q4, supply pressure showed marginal relief, and the market trading logic shifted from "downward cycle" to "cycle reversal" [2] - In 2026, the egg market has the foundation for a cycle reversal, but the path will be full of repetitions and uncertainties. The market needs to find a new balance between high inventory pressure and optimistic long - term expectations [2] Summary by Directory 1. Review: Capacity Over - supply Gradually Materialized - The core contradiction in the egg market in 2025 was the oversupply caused by the increase in laying hen inventory, which led to overall downward pressure on egg prices. The futures market followed the spot trend and amplified expectations [13] - Spring Festival: After the festival, the egg price dropped sharply, with a weekly average decline of 18.43%. The slowdown of capacity clearance was due to farmers' "bottom - fishing" mentality [14] - After Spring Festival to before May Day: High inventory dominated the market. The "weak reality" and "strong expectation" were differentiated, and the "short near - term, long far - term" reverse arbitrage structure was formed [15] - After May Day: The expected rally was falsified, and the market returned to a downward trend. The main contract switched to 06, and the spot price hit a new low [16] - H2: The expected support in the peak season failed. By the end of the year, the market turned to new cycle expectations [17] 2. Supply: The Dispute between Hen Culling and Chick Rearing 2.1 Supply Expansion Dominated Prices, with a Weak Performance Throughout the Year - Inventory Base Climbed: In 2025, the laying hen inventory was at a historical high. From January to November, the average monthly inventory of laying hens was 1.338 billion (Zhuochuang) and 1.276 billion (Steel Union), with year - on - year increases of 6.41% and 6.76% respectively [26] - Egg - laying Efficiency Improved: The improvement of egg - laying efficiency was another cause of oversupply in 2025, offsetting the supply reduction caused by hen culling [37] 2.2 High Chick Rearing has Reversed Downward - Chick Sales Declined from a High: In 2025, the overall sales of laying hen chicks showed a trend of "high in the first half, slow in the second half, and seasonal decline". From January to November, the cumulative sales were 46720 million (Zhuochuang) and 44343 million (Steel Union), with year - on - year decreases of 3.16% and 3.93% respectively [39][42] - The Price of Laying Hen Chicks Returned to a Rational Level: As of November 2025, the price of laying hen chicks was stable at around 2.7 yuan per chick, indicating a significant reduction in farmers' enthusiasm for chick rearing [51] 2.3 The Evolution of Hen Culling and Inventory Structure - The Key Variable in the Reversal Cycle - Culling Speed: In 2025, the culling of old hens showed significant phased characteristics, from relative caution at the beginning of the year to accelerated release in the middle of the year, and then maintained at a high level currently [53] - The Inventory Structure Tended to be Younger: By November 2025, the proportion of hens to be culled decreased, and the proportion of laying hens increased. The age structure of the inventory became younger [64] 2.4 Forecast of Laying Hen Inventory - Based on different scenarios of culling rhythm assumptions, the inventory level from January to April 2026 is expected to decline, but it will still be 10 - 20% higher than the theoretical inventory from January to April 2025 [75][76] 3. Demand: Trade Speculation Dominated Stage - by - Stage Market 3.1 Industrial Demand Maintained Resilience, while Household Consumption Showed Saturation - In 2025, the terminal consumption of eggs started high and ended low. Although industrial demand was resilient, it could not offset the weakening of catering and household demand [80] - The price ratio of pork/eggs was above 2.4, and that of chicken/eggs was above 2. Eggs had a significant unit protein cost advantage, but the substitution effect was limited and seasonal [91] 3.2 Pay Attention to Hoarding Market - After the Spring Festival, the inventory increased to a high level, and then the market entered a de - stocking cycle. Before festivals, there were often "pre - festival replenishment, post - festival callback" characteristics [94] - By the end of the year, the inventory level was not high, showing signs of improvement in the supply - demand situation [94] 4. Outlook and Investment Recommendations 4.1 Reality: The Industry is Gradually Ready for a Cycle Reversal - Since Q4 2025, the oversupply pressure has been marginally relieved. In 2026, the egg industry has the foundation for a cycle reversal, but the path will be complex and uncertain [100][102] 4.2 Changes: Expectation Adjustment is Inevitable - The current pricing structure has a contradiction: near - term contracts are over - priced, while far - term contracts have incorporated optimistic reversal expectations. The market will fluctuate due to the game between culling and chick rearing [103] 4.3 Strategies - Unilateral: For Q1 contracts, they can be considered as short - side opportunities when the premium is high. For Q2 contracts, a "buy on dips" strategy can be adopted. For H2 contracts, it is recommended to wait and see or operate within a range [3] - Arbitrage: The "short near - term, long far - term" reverse arbitrage is recommended. When the price difference between contracts is distorted, the safety margin of this strategy increases [3]