瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20251217

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - In the domestic market, currently, the quotes of processed sugar and beet sugar are relatively stable. With the arrival of new sugar from Guangxi in the sales areas and poor market transactions, the competition among the three sugar sources affects prices negatively. As of now, in the 25/26 sugar - making season, 66 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production, 5 less than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 537,500 tons, 29,000 tons less than last year. In Yunnan, 29 sugar mills have started production, 10 more than last year, and over half of the sugar mills have started operation. Overall, the new sugar - making season is approaching its peak, supply is increasing, spot prices are weakening, and there is a lack of bullish drivers. It is expected that the sugar price will fluctuate at a low level in the future [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5,139 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 487,935 lots, up 6,509 lots; the number of sugar warehouse receipts is 611, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 81,558 lots, down 2,553 lots; the total valid warehouse receipt forecast is 1,490, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,094 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan; the estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,188 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan; the estimated import - processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 4,116 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan; the estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,217 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan. The spot price of sugar in Yunnan Kunming is 5,245 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; in Guangxi Nanning, it is 5,320 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Guangxi Liuzhou, it is 5,390 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the cumulative national sugar production is 1,116.21 tons, up 5.49 tons; the planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 840.33 thousand hectares, up 8.94 thousand hectares; the cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi is 330.2 tons, down 90.3 tons; the cumulative production of cane sugar in Yunnan is 4.48 tons, down 237.4 tons [2] Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,146 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; outside the quota (50% tariff), it is 52 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan. The price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,124 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; outside the quota (50% tariff), it is 23 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan. The monthly sugar import volume is 75 tons, up 20 tons; the cumulative import volume is 390 tons, up 74 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 88.3 tons, up 34.39 tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1,096.2 tons, down 495.5 tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.1%, down 0.46%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 8.12%, down 0.48%. The 20 - day historical volatility is 6.83%, up 1.29%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.84%, up 0.54% [2] Industry News - According to the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association Unica, in the second half of November 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 15.993 million tons of sugar - cane, a year - on - year decrease of 21.08%, and produced 724,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 32.94%. As of December 1, in the 25/26 sugar - making season (April 2025 - March 2026), the central - southern region of Brazil had cumulatively crushed 592 million tons of sugar - cane, a year - on - year decrease of 1.92%, and cumulatively produced 39.904 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 1.13%, with a cumulative sugar - making ratio of 51.12%, higher than 48% in the same period last year. ICE raw sugar futures closed down on Tuesday due to favorable weather in the Brazilian production area. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on ICE closed down 0.13 cents or 0.90% at 14.82 cents per pound [2]