瑞达期货不锈钢产业日报-20251217

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The stainless steel futures price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and attention should be paid to the pressure of MA10. The supply pressure increases as the production profit of stainless steel plants improves and the decline in production is limited. The downstream demand turns to the off - season, the export volume decreases, and the market trading is average. However, the social inventory of stainless steel in the whole country shows a seasonal slight decline, and there is support at the previous low of 13,000 level [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,380 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 60 yuan/ton; the 01 - 02 contract spread is - 125 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 8,103 lots, a decrease of 387 lots. The main contract position is 136,601 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 58,647 tons, a decrease of 1,156 tons [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,050 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the SS main contract is 500 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 22,900 metal tons, an increase of 1,200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 9,939.65 tons, a decrease of 18,631.22 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 905,100 tons, a decrease of 180,200 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 115,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 550 yuan/ton; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 890 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. The monthly Chinese ferrochrome output is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.8 million tons, an increase of 37,300 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 587,700 tons, an increase of 2,400 tons. The monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 49,0613,900 square meters, an increase of 36,623,900 square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 30,900 units, a decrease of 700 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,900 units, a decrease of 4,300 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 9,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - US employment continues to cool, the 12 - month Markit composite PMI hits a six - month low, and the eurozone's 12 - month manufacturing PMI accelerates contraction. The Philippines enters the rainy season, the nickel ore grade declines, and the raw material inventory of domestic nickel - iron plants is tight, but the Indonesian nickel - iron output remains high. Central Financial Office says investment and consumption growth are expected to recover next year [2]