Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-17 08:57Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report expects Shanghai zinc to undergo wide - range adjustments and suggests paying attention to the support at the 2.28 level [3][4]. - Upstream zinc mine imports have declined due to the deteriorating internal - external price ratio and increased losses in importing zinc concentrates. Domestic smelters have started winter raw material reserves, preferring domestic zinc concentrates, which has led to increased competition for domestic ore procurement, significant drops in processing fees at home and abroad, and a contraction in smelter profits, with expected significant production decline [3]. - Recently, the London zinc price has corrected, the Shanghai - London ratio has rebounded, and the export window may close again [3]. - On the demand side, the downstream market is entering the off - season. The real estate sector is a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are weakening, while the automotive sector has some positive factors due to policy support. The downstream market mainly purchases on - demand at low prices. Recently, the zinc price has corrected, the trading atmosphere has improved, the spot premium has remained high and stable, domestic inventories have decreased significantly, LME zinc inventories have increased significantly, and the spot premium has been significantly reduced [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 22,970 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the 01 - 02 contract spread is - 5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [3]. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,035 dollars/ton, down 60 dollars; the total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 194,756 lots, down 12,790 lots [3]. - The net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 2,722 lots, down 4,540 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged [3]. - The SHFE inventory is 80,577 tons, down 11,339 tons; the LME inventory is 95,550 tons, up 31,075 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 23,020 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,750 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [3]. - The basis of the ZN main contract is 50 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread is - 16.47 dollars/ton, up 15.14 dollars [3]. - The factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 20,090 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons, down 14,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 20,300 tons, down 27,640 tons [3]. - The global zinc mine production is 1.0666 million tons, down 31,000 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 665,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume is 340,900 tons, down 164,500 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 18,836.76 tons, down 3,840.75 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 8,518.67 tons, up 6,040.84 tons [3]. - The social zinc inventory is 132,500 tons, down 1,400 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, up 20,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.42 million tons, up 140,000 tons [3]. - The new housing construction area is 490.6139 million square meters, up 36.6239 million square meters; the housing completion area is 348.61 million square meters, up 37.3212 million square meters [3]. - The automobile production is 3.279 million vehicles, up 52,000 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units, down 3.8908 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 16.28%, down 1.39 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 16.27%, down 1.4 percentage points [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 13.23%, down 0.76 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 11.88%, up 0.59 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - In the macro - aspect, the US November non - farm payrolls increased more than expected, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly reached a four - year high, not significantly changing the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. The US 12 - month Markit composite PMI hit a six - month low, with price indicators rising sharply and employment indicators weak. The eurozone's 12 - month manufacturing PMI accelerated its contraction, Germany had its worst performance in 10 months, and France returned to the expansion range [3]. - The central financial office stated that the investment and consumption growth rates are expected to recover next year, and the real estate supply side should strictly control the increment and revitalize the stock [3]. - In the fundamental aspect, the upstream zinc ore import volume declined due to the deteriorating internal - external price ratio and increased losses in importing zinc concentrates. Domestic smelters have started winter raw material reserves, preferring domestic zinc concentrates, leading to increased competition for domestic ore procurement, significant drops in processing fees at home and abroad, and a contraction in smelter profits [3].