瑞达期货沪镍产业日报-20251217

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - The report anticipates short - term shock adjustment of Shanghai nickel and suggests attention to the pressure of MA5. The fundamental situation shows that the import volume of nickel ore is on a downward trend as the Philippines enters the rainy season. Although there are potential variables in Indonesia's RKAB approval and possible export policy changes, the recent impact on supply is limited. On the smelting side, the supply pressure in the pure nickel market is relatively high. On the demand side, the production volume of stainless steel is expected to be high, and new energy vehicles contribute a small increase in demand. Both domestic and overseas nickel inventories are increasing [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 113,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,510 yuan/ton; the 01 - 02 contract spread of Shanghai nickel is - 200 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 40 yuan/ton. The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 14,255 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 40 US dollars/ton. The position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 94,065 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 11,503 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures positions of Shanghai nickel is - 26,857 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 3,773 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 253,392 tons, with no change; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 44,677 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2,169 tons; the LME nickel cancelled warrants total 9,528 tons, with no change; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 38,261 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 432 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 115,300 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 550 yuan/ton; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 115,300 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 450 yuan/ton. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with no change; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with no change. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,550 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of the NI main contract is 1,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 960 yuan/ton. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 189.26 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 0.99 US dollars/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of nickel ore is 468.28 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 143.17 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,455.87 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 13.84 million tons. The average import unit price of nickel ore is 57.33 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 0.61 US dollars/ton; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, with no change [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly output of ferronickel is 22,900 metal tons, with an increase of 1,200 metal tons. The import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 9,939.65 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 18,631.22 tons; the import volume of ferronickel is 905,100 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 180,200 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.8 million tons, with an increase of 37,300 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 587,700 tons, with an increase of 2,400 tons [2]. Industry News - The US employment continues to cool down. In November, non - farm payrolls rebounded slightly, but the unemployment rate reached a four - year high. Traders estimate two interest rate cuts next year. The "New Fed News Agency" said that the non - farm data is unlikely to significantly change the Fed's judgment when weighing whether to cut interest rates again. The US Markit composite PMI in December hit a six - month low, with a sharp rise in price indicators and weak employment indicators. The eurozone manufacturing PMI in December accelerated its contraction, with Germany hitting a 10 - month low and France and Italy also showing weak performance. The macro - level shows that although the non - farm employment in the US in November exceeded expectations, the unexpected rise in the unemployment rate to a four - year high did not significantly change the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. The central financial office said that the growth rates of investment and consumption are expected to recover next year, and the real estate supply side should strictly control the increment and revitalize the stock [2].