广发宏观：如何理解一并公布的10月和11月非农数据

Group 1: Employment Data Overview - The U.S. Labor Department released combined non-farm employment data for October and November, with November showing an increase of 64,000 jobs, exceeding the expected 50,000[5]. - October saw a decrease of 105,000 jobs, primarily due to a reduction of 162,000 jobs in the federal government sector[6]. - Private sector employment increased by 69,000 in November and 52,000 in October, with a three-month moving average of 75,000[6]. Group 2: Labor Market Dynamics - The unemployment rate rose from 4.44% in October to 4.56% in November, marking the highest level since September 2021[7]. - The labor force participation rate increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 62.5%[7]. - The youth unemployment rate for ages 16-19 rose significantly from 13.2% to 16.3%, indicating challenges for young job seekers[8]. Group 3: Wage and Hour Trends - Average hourly wages increased by 3.75% year-over-year in October and 3.51% in November, with month-over-month increases of 0.44% and 0.14%, respectively[9]. - The Index of Aggregate Payrolls Private showed a year-over-year increase of 4.37% in October and 4.34% in November, reflecting overall labor income trends[12]. - Weekly hours worked averaged 34.2 hours in October and 34.3 hours in November, indicating a slight increase in overtime trends[12]. Group 4: Economic Implications - The data suggests a mixed employment landscape, with structural demand in healthcare and social services, while public sector and manufacturing remain weak[7]. - The JOLTS job openings rose to 7.67 million in October, indicating resilient job demand despite rising unemployment[14]. - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March 2026 increased to 62.7% from 42.4% following the employment data release[15].