Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-17 09:03Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Domestically, the supply is tightening due to restrictions on Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal imports and oil mills being shut down, but marginal supply increases with Australian rapeseed arrivals, and there are rumors of increased future supply. Also, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal futures price may remain weak in the short - term [2]. - The rapeseed oil market has a tightening supply structure due to the failure of China - Canada trade negotiations on rapeseed tariffs and oil mills being shut down, and it will continue the de - stocking mode. However, future supply is expected to increase with Australian rapeseed arrivals and rumors of inquiries for Canadian rapeseed. The ample supply of soybean oil and its good substitution advantage keep the demand for rapeseed oil at a basic level. The rapeseed oil price may maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures prices of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, ICE rapeseed, and domestic rapeseed all decreased. The month - to - month spreads of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal changed, with the 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil down 35 yuan/ton and that of rapeseed meal up 10 yuan/ton. The main - contract positions of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal increased, while the net long positions of the top 20 futures holders decreased. The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts decreased by 50, and that of rapeseed meal remained at 0 [2]. 现货市场 - Spot prices of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu, average rapeseed oil price, and the import cost of rapeseed decreased. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong increased by 10 yuan/ton. The oil - meal ratio decreased by 0.05. The basis of the main rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal contracts increased. The spot prices of substitute products such as soybean oil, palm oil, and soybean meal decreased, and the price differences between rapeseed oil and its substitutes also decreased [2]. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production is expected to increase by 1.31 million tons. The total monthly rapeseed import volume is 0, a decrease of 11.53 tons. The import rapeseed crushing profit decreased by 39 yuan/ton. The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills increased by 0.1 tons, and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 0. The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil decreased by 2 tons, while the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal increased by 6.29 tons [2]. Industry Situation - Coastal and East China's rapeseed oil inventories decreased, while the rapeseed meal inventory in coastal areas remained unchanged and that in South China increased. The weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed oil increased by 0.9 tons, and that of rapeseed meal decreased by 0.45 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed decreased by 171.7 tons, and the monthly output of edible vegetable oil decreased by 67.4 tons. The monthly retail sales of catering increased by 690.4 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for rapeseed meal decreased, while the historical volatility of 20 - day and 60 - day for rapeseed meal increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for rapeseed oil increased, and the historical volatility of 20 - day and 60 - day for rapeseed oil also increased [2]. Industry News - On December 16, the ICE rapeseed futures continued to decline, with the most actively traded March contract down 4.00 Canadian dollars. During the US soybean export season, the supply is temporarily abundant, and the US faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans. The US soybean futures price has fallen from its high due to China's slowdown in procurement [2]. Rapeseed Meal Viewpoint Summary - The supply of rapeseed meal is tightening domestically, but marginal supply increases with Australian rapeseed arrivals, and future supply is expected to increase. The demand for rapeseed meal is weakened by the good substitution advantage of soybean meal. The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the futures price may remain weak in the short - term [2]. Rapeseed Oil Viewpoint Summary - The supply of rapeseed oil is structurally tightening, and it will continue the de - stocking mode. However, future supply is expected to increase. The demand for rapeseed oil is mainly at a basic level due to the substitution of soybean oil. The rapeseed oil price may maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term [2].