瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20251217

1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report 2. Core Views Corn - Globally, the U.S. corn is in the export season with high supply pressure, and the global and U.S. corn supply - demand is still relatively loose, suppressing international corn prices However, the USDA's downward adjustment of the U.S. corn's 2025/26 carry - over inventory forecast supports U.S. corn prices [2] - In China's Northeast region, the increased acquisition by reserve warehouses in December supports the market bottom, but high prices limit buyers' enthusiasm, and the release of grain sources due to rumors leads to a price decline In the North China and Huanghuai regions, farmers' selling enthusiasm increases slightly, and prices fluctuate slightly [2] - Corn futures prices have fallen from high levels recently after an unexpected increase, with high short - term volatility, so it's recommended to wait and see [2] Corn Starch - With the increase in new - season corn supply, the industry's operating rate has risen, increasing supply pressure As of December 17, the national corn starch inventory has increased However, the upcoming festivals may boost demand, and the price increase of cassava starch may also increase the demand for corn starch [3] - Affected by the decline in corn prices, corn starch prices have also fallen, so short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [3] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract): 2206 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; corn starch futures closing price (active contract): 2512 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - Corn monthly spread (1 - 5): - 16 yuan/ton; corn starch monthly spread (1 - 3): 12 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2] - Corn futures open interest (active contract): 988,605 lots, up 543,683 lots; corn starch futures open interest (active contract): 132,098 lots, down 5,695 lots [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn: - 96,862 lots, up 6,528 lots; for corn starch: - 33,511 lots, down 193 lots [2] - Registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn: 54,440 lots, down 1,790 lots; for corn starch: 2,500 lots, unchanged [2] - CS - C price difference of the main contract: 333 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2] Outer - Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract): 436 cents/bu, down 3.5 cents; total CBOT corn open interest (weekly): 1,616,139 contracts, up 13,001 contracts [2] - Non - commercial net long positions of CBOT corn (weekly): 120,900 contracts, up 77,887 contracts [2] Spot Market - Average spot price of corn: 2,350.78 yuan/ton, down 3.14 yuan; factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun: 2,590 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - FOB price of corn at Jinzhou Port: 2,280 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; factory - quoted price of corn starch in Weifang: 2,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - CIF price of imported corn: 2,120.47 yuan/ton, down 2.11 yuan; factory - quoted price of corn starch in Shijiazhuang: 2,730 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - International freight of imported corn: 50 dollars/ton, unchanged; basis of the main corn starch contract: 88 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [2] - Basis of the main corn contract: 144.78 yuan/ton, up 10.86 yuan; price difference between Shandong starch and corn (weekly): 466 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan [2] Substitute Spot Prices - Average spot price of wheat: 2,517.78 yuan/ton, down 0.89 yuan; price difference between cassava starch and corn starch (weekly): 725 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan [2] - Price difference between corn starch and 30 - powder: - 229 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - Forecasted annual corn production in the U.S. (monthly): 425.53 million tons, down 1.58 million tons; forecasted sown area of corn in the U.S. (monthly): 36.44 million hectares, up 0.55 million hectares [2] - Forecasted annual corn production in Brazil (monthly): 131 million tons, unchanged; forecasted sown area of corn in Brazil (monthly): 22.6 million hectares, unchanged [2] - Forecasted annual corn production in Argentina (monthly): 53 million tons, unchanged; forecasted sown area of corn in Argentina (monthly): 7.5 million hectares, unchanged [2] - Forecasted annual corn production in China (monthly): 295 million tons, unchanged; forecasted sown area of corn in China (monthly): 44.3 million hectares, unchanged [2] - Forecasted annual corn production in Ukraine (monthly): 32 million tons, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - Corn inventory at southern ports (weekly): 31.5 tons, down 20.2 tons; deep - processing corn inventory (weekly): 294 tons, up 18.6 tons [2] - Corn inventory at northern ports (weekly): 152 tons, down 11 tons; weekly inventory of starch enterprises (weekly): 107.4 tons, up 2.5 tons [2] - Monthly import volume of corn: 36 tons, up 30 tons; monthly export volume of corn starch: 19.17 tons, up 6.39 tons [2] - Monthly feed production: 2,957 tons, down 171.7 tons; processing profit of corn starch in Shandong (daily): - 8 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - Inventory days of sample feed corn (weekly): 29.53 days, up 0.86 days; processing profit of corn starch in Hebei (daily): 74 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [2] - Deep - processing corn consumption (weekly): 141.67 tons, down 0.09 tons; processing profit of corn starch in Jilin (daily): - 53 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2] - Alcohol enterprise operating rate (weekly): 68.22%, down 2.06%; starch enterprise operating rate (weekly): 62.31%, down 0.53% [2] Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of corn (daily): 11.72%, down 0.2%; 60 - day historical volatility of corn (daily): 9.45%, down 0.03% [2] - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn (daily): 1.48%, down 7.11%; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn (daily): 5.17%, down 3.41% [2] Industry News - On December 16, CGSGB invited bids for the sale of imported corn, with 103,129 tons of 2021 U.S. corn planned for auction, all of which were sold The auction reserve price was 2,000 yuan/ton, the transaction price was 2,070 - 2,085 yuan/ton, and the premium was 70 - 85 yuan/ton [2]