Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the significant growth in energy storage demand will shift the cost curve to the right, driving up the center of lithium prices. However, high lithium prices will face pressure from energy storage yields, sodium-ion battery substitution, and mine restarts, which will limit the upside space [2]. - The lithium resource market will see a simultaneous increase in supply and demand in 2026. The supply is expected to reach 2.29 million tons, with a year-on-year growth rate of 30%, and the demand will be 2.213 million tons, also with a year-on-year increase of 30%. The lithium resource is expected to have a surplus of 77,000 tons, with a surplus rate of 3.5% [2][46]. - The price ceiling of lithium carbonate in 2026 is constrained by multiple factors: the rigid immediate ceiling is determined by the energy storage yield, which restricts the cell price to 0.45 yuan/WH and the lithium price to 133,000 yuan/ton; the flexible long-term ceiling is due to the economic substitution of sodium-ion batteries for lithium-ion batteries, which inhibits the lithium battery price from exceeding 0.4 yuan/WH; the flexible medium-term ceiling comes from the restart line of mines that have been shut down or postponed, and a price above 1,200 US dollars/ton is expected to stimulate mine restart, equivalent to a lithium carbonate price of 95,000 yuan/ton. The price floor is supported by the cash cost, and the equilibrium price of the cost curve will shift to the right to 87,000 yuan/ton due to the growth in demand [2]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 Review of Lithium Carbonate Trends - In 2025, the lithium carbonate price showed a V-shaped trend. From January to June, the price declined due to factors such as US tariffs and supply-demand imbalances. From July to September, the price increased due to mining rights issues but then decreased again due to restart expectations. From October to December, the price broke through a phased high due to unexpected energy storage demand [5][6]. - In the first stage (January 2025), under the pattern of weak supply and demand, the supply contraction of lithium salts was more prominent, and the price was firm. In the second stage (February - June 2025), the price declined with the increase in supply and the impact of US tariffs. In the third stage (July - September 2025), the price fluctuated due to mining rights issues and restart expectations. In the fourth stage (October - December 2025), the price increased due to unexpected energy storage demand [6][8][12]. 2. Lithium Resource Supply Maintains High Growth but with Uncertainties in Mining Licenses and Geopolitics 2.1 Incremental Lithium Resource Supply - In 2026, the global lithium resource supply is expected to reach 2.29 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 535,000 tons and a growth rate of 30%. The incremental supply mainly comes from new capacities of existing projects, improved capacity utilization, restart of projects affected by mining licenses, and expansion of safety permits [13][14]. - The share of salt lake resources will further increase from 35% to 37%, the scale of spodumene will decrease from 52% to 45%, and the proportion of mica will increase from 9% to 14%. The incremental production of different resource types comes from various sources, such as new capacities and improved utilization rates for spodumene and salt lakes, and production release after mine type change and expansion of safety permits for mica [13][15]. - The regions with significant incremental production include Jiangxi, Australia, Qinghai, Argentina, and Nigeria. The incremental production in each region has its own main sources, such as the restart of mines and expansion of safety permits in Jiangxi, improved recovery rates and new project expansions in Australia, and new project releases in Argentina [20]. 2.2 Optimistic Expectations Based on Shutdown or Investment Re - evaluation, Adjusting Pessimistic Forecasts According to Mine Type Changes and Geopolitical Conflicts - Based on optimistic expectations, if the lithium carbonate price rises significantly in 2026 due to energy storage market demand, there is still potential for incremental supply, mainly in Australia and some African hand - dug mines that have previously shut down or postponed investment. Considering project restart and shipping time, the global lithium resource supply in 2026 is expected to be 2.355 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 600,000 tons and a growth rate of 34% [25]. - According to pessimistic forecasts, if the processing time of mining licenses in Jiangxi lithium mica mines exceeds expectations or the mines do not restart, and there are geopolitical risks in Nigeria, the global lithium resource supply in 2026 is expected to be 2.089 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 335,000 tons and a growth rate of 19% [26][27]. 2.3 Domestic Demand's Dependence on Overseas Imported Resources Increases from 430,000 Tons to 540,000 Tons - The market share of Chinese - funded lithium resources in the global market will increase from 41% to 45% in 2026. However, with the growth of domestic demand, the total import demand will further increase, and the premium ability of overseas mines is expected to increase, and the stability of ore prices is expected to be higher than that of lithium salt prices [29]. 3. Energy Storage Batteries Enter an Economic Chapter, and the Growth Rate of Power Demand Slows Down 3.1 New Energy Demand Continues to Grow, and Energy Storage Cells Accelerate to Replace the Share of Power Batteries - In 2026, the growth rate of power battery demand will slow down. The domestic new energy vehicle market will have marginal increments from the low - and medium - priced passenger car sinking market and the commercial vehicle emerging market, but the overall growth rate will slow down. The overseas market has different situations, with Europe promoting electrification and the US having weak demand momentum [34]. - The energy storage demand is experiencing a transformation from policy - driven to economically - driven. The domestic energy storage demand is growing steadily, and the global energy storage demand in emerging countries is also expanding rapidly. In 2026, the demand for lithium carbonate equivalent of power batteries, energy storage batteries, traditional industries, and consumer batteries is 1.207 million tons, 605,000 tons, 11,000 tons, and 36,000 tons respectively, and the market shares of energy storage batteries will increase from 23% to 31%, while that of power batteries will decrease from 68% to 61% [34]. - Based on optimistic estimates, the demand for the lithium salt market in 2026 is expected to be 2.213 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 515,000 tons and a growth rate of 30%, which is basically the same as the supply growth rate. The transformation of the energy storage demand logic is a high - probability event, and the possibility of rigid demand in the lithium salt market is low [35]. 3.2 Global Energy Storage Demand Grows Steadily, and the Demand in the Domestic Capacity Subsidy Trend Exceeds Expectations - The domestic energy storage demand is shifting from rigid demand to economic demand, and the growth rate is expected to increase from 18% to 74%. The reason is that the energy storage demand has transformed from supply - side forced storage in the past to grid - side economic - driven demand. China has issued capacity subsidy policies in more than ten provinces, which have significantly increased the energy storage power station yield [40]. - The domestic energy storage demand trading logic may expand from more than ten provinces to the whole country, which is expected to bring significant benefits to the raw material demand in late 2026 or 2027. Overseas, the US may face short - term pressure, Europe's new installed capacity is expected to increase, and emerging markets such as Chile, Australia, the Middle East, and India are the main sources of incremental growth [41]. - In the neutral scenario, the new installed capacity demand for energy storage in 2026 is about 284 GWh, and in the optimistic scenario, it is about 325 GWh [40]. 4. Global Lithium Resource Supply - Demand Balance and Price Ceiling and Floor 4.1 Supply - Demand Balance - In 2026, the lithium resource market will see a simultaneous increase in supply and demand, with a supply of 2.29 million tons and a demand of 2.213 million tons, both with a year-on-year growth rate of 30%. The lithium resource is expected to have a surplus of 77,000 tons, and the price is expected to show a high - volatility pattern with a rising bottom [46]. 4.2 Rigid Immediate Price Ceiling - The energy storage yield is the constraint line for the cell price. From 2026 to 2028, the IRR decision of energy storage power stations restricts the cell price to 0.45, 0.38, and 0.32 yuan/WH respectively, and the lithium price to 133,000, 113,000, and 95,000 yuan/ton respectively [74]. 4.3 Flexible Long - Term Price Ceiling - In the long run, sodium - ion batteries have the competitive advantage of replacing lithium - ion batteries in terms of economy, safety, and performance matching. The cost of sodium - ion batteries is expected to decrease to about 0.4 yuan/WH in the medium term, which will inhibit the lithium battery price from exceeding 0.4 yuan/WH [59]. 4.4 Flexible Half - Year Price Ceiling - A high ore price can stimulate the restart of mines that have been shut down or postponed. A lithium price above 1,200 US dollars/ton for a long time is expected to stimulate mine restart, equivalent to a lithium carbonate price of 95,000 yuan/ton, involving a mine capacity of more than 750,000 tons of concentrate [67]. 4.5 Rigid Long - Term Price Support - The price floor is supported by the cash cost. The equilibrium price of the cost curve will shift to the right. According to the model calculation, the cost curve corresponding to the optimistic demand forecast of 2.2 million tons of lithium salt demand in 2026 is 87,000 yuan/ton [70].
2026年碳酸锂期货年度行情展望：储能激战正酣，高锂价是引擎还是瓶颈
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-12-17 10:08