Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-17 10:19Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Some previously overhauled facilities have resumed operation, leading to a slight increase in domestic urea production. With 2 companies' facilities planned to shut down and 1 shut - down facility possibly resuming production this week, considering short - term malfunctions, the production change is expected to be limited [2] - Recent reserve demand has slowed down, but there is still short - term replenishment demand. The demand for urea from the compound fertilizer industry is relatively strong, and the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers is expected to rise steadily [2] - Urea is being shipped to ports in batches, and some enterprises are in the final stage of shipping. Main production and sales areas' mainstream urea factories have slightly accumulated inventory this week, but Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia are still showing obvious destocking due to reserve demand from the northwest and northeast. The domestic urea enterprise inventory continues to decline, and the short - term order intake of urea factories is good. There is a possibility of further destocking [2] - The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1650 - 1720 in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1646 yuan/ton, with a 16 - yuan increase; the 1 - 5 spread is - 37 yuan/ton, with a 6 - yuan increase [2] - The position of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 64839 lots, a decrease of 17154 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 11394, an increase of 3340 [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea are 11202 sheets, a decrease of 12 sheets [2] Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, and Shandong remain unchanged at 1710 yuan/ton, 1670 yuan/ton, 1680 yuan/ton, and 1700 yuan/ton respectively; the price in Anhui is 1660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2] - The FOB prices in the Baltic Sea and China's main ports are 347.5 US dollars/ton and 387.5 US dollars/ton respectively, remaining unchanged [2] - The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The port inventory is 12.3 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons; the enterprise inventory is 123.42 million tons, a decrease of 5.63 million tons [2] - The urea enterprise operating rate is 81.85%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points; the daily urea output is 197900 tons, remaining unchanged [2] - The urea export volume is 120 million tons, a decrease of 17 million tons; the monthly urea output is 6000330 tons, an increase of 129060 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 40.62%, an increase of 0.09 percentage points; the operating rate of melamine is 61.86%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points [2] - The weekly profit of compound fertilizers in China is 137 yuan/ton, an increase of 81 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 13 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton [2] - The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 438.25 million tons, an increase of 75.38 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 32200 tons, an increase of 100 tons [2] Industry News - As of December 17, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 117.97 million tons, a decrease of 5.45 million tons from last week, a 4.42% decrease. The inventory decline is mainly concentrated in North, Northeast, and Northwest China [2] - As of December 11, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports is 12.3 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons from the previous period, a 17.14% increase. The current export land collection and port - calling process has slightly accelerated, and some ports have received goods successively [2] Suggested Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]