瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20251217

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory of domestic methanol enterprises may still show a slight accumulation in the short - term. The port inventory of methanol decreased slightly this week. The提货 of the mainstream social warehouses in East China continued well, but the shutdown and maintenance of an olefin plant in Zhejiang continued to affect consumption. In South China, imports and domestic trade vessels continued to replenish, the提货 volume of the main storage areas was acceptable, and the inventory increased slightly. The market should continue to pay attention to the unloading of foreign vessels. - The operation of MTO industry declined. Although the production load of the newly - put - into - operation MTO device of Lianhong Gerun will gradually increase in the short - term, considering the previously shut - down and overhauled devices, the industry operation is still expected to decline. - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2000 - 2180 in the short - term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2156 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 27 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of methanol was - 45 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton. - The open interest of the main methanol contract was 874,732 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 21,895 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 133,848 lots. - The number of warehouse receipts for methanol was 7,709, a week - on - week decrease of 726. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2095 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the price in Inner Mongolia was 1955 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 140 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 34 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 55 yuan/ton. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 245 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 317 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The FOB price in Rotterdam was 253 euros/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 euro/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 72 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.94 US dollars/million British thermal units, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 US dollars/million British thermal units. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 830,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 108,200 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 403,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,800 tons. - The import profit of methanol was 7.94 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.42 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 1.6126 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 185,700 tons. - The inventory of inland enterprises was 352,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8,700 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises was 89.81%, a week - on - week increase of 0.72%. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 41.49%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.42%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 8.98%, a week - on - week increase of 1.1%. - The operating rate of acetic acid was 73.89%, a week - on - week increase of 4.27%; the operating rate of MTBE was 69.75%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22%. - The operating rate of olefins was 89.95%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87%; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 1014 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 83 yuan/ton. [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 16.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 0.55%. - The 40 - day historical volatility of methanol was 17.39%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.09%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol was 17.94%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.57%. [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of December 17, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 391,100 tons, an increase of 38,300 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 10.86%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 220,400 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 6.25%. - As of December 17, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.2188 million tons, a decrease of 15,600 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China decreased by 31,000 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 15,400 tons. - Recently, the production capacity loss due to maintenance and production reduction of domestic methanol was less than the production capacity output due to recovery, and the overall output increased. The operation of inland methanol projects was normal, and the overall supply was abundant. Affected by the previous snowfall and the concentrated return of goods from downstream enterprises during the week, the loading and shipping rhythm of upstream enterprises slowed down. As of December 11, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 90.20%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.68%. The Ningbo Fude plant was under maintenance, and the Qinghai Salt Lake plant was shut down after a short - term start - up, resulting in a decline in the operation of the MTO industry. [2]