股指早报2025.12.17：美非农低于预期，A股二次探底-20251217

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. Report's Core View - Overseas data shows a weakening in the US labor market and consumption, with increased market expectations for a Fed rate cut in January but no change to the overall view of no rate cut. Market trends after the data release indicate internal uncertainties, and there is a need to watch for subsequent risks. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell, and the offshore RMB exchange rate appreciated, suggesting an increase in the risk - aversion attribute of funds [2]. - On the domestic market, the A - share market fell on Tuesday, with major indices experiencing a second bottom - testing. The decline was mainly due to a long - term sideways movement, intensified internal capital movement, weak economic data, and a lack of incremental funds. The market's correction is making room for the upcoming Spring Festival market. There may be a resistive rebound around 3800 points in the short term, and the analyst still favors the cross - year market as of late December, suggesting increasing positions after the market's downward adjustment is confirmed [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Important资讯 - US employment data: The US added 64,000 seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls in November, higher than expected. In October, non - farm employment decreased by 105,000, worse than the expected 25,000 decline. The US unemployment rate in November reached 4.6%, a four - year high [5]. - Fed - related news: There are reports that Waller will be interviewed by Trump on Wednesday, and the probability of him being a candidate for Fed Chair has risen to 15%. The US Treasury Secretary believes that Warsh and Hassett are capable of leading the Fed, and the selection of the Fed Chair is expected to be announced in early January. Hassett, the White House National Economic Council Director, said there is still much room for rate cuts in case of positive supply - side shocks [5]. - Other international news: Trump will deliver a national speech during prime time to address a decline in polls and may announce new year policies. The US threatens to retaliate against the EU's digital service tax plan and may initiate a 301 investigation [6][7]. - Domestic policy news: The Central Financial and Economic Affairs Office stated that expanding domestic demand is the top priority next year, and efforts should be made from both supply and demand sides to boost consumption. The NDRC aims to enhance residents' consumption willingness and strengthen anti - monopoly and anti - unfair competition law enforcement. The Social Security Fund Council will support the integration of technological and industrial innovation. The Ministry of Commerce will impose anti - dumping duties on imported pork and pork products from the EU starting December 17, 2025 [7]. 2. Futures Market Tracking - Futures market performance: All major index futures contracts, including those for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, showed declines on the day. For example, the Shanghai 50 index fell 1.08%, and its corresponding futures contracts (IH2512, IH2601, etc.) also declined, with the decline rates ranging from 1.09% to 1.17% [9]. - Futures trading volume and open interest: The trading volume and open interest of major index futures contracts changed. For instance, the trading volume of the Shanghai 50 index futures was 70,206 lots, an increase of 10,967 lots. The open interest of the CSI 300 index futures increased by 24,310 lots [10]. 3. Spot Market Tracking - Spot market performance: Major stock indices in the A - share market declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.11%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.51%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.1%. In terms of sectors, commercial aerospace, digital currency, and consumption remained active, but they could not support the overall index. Sectors such as commerce and retail, beauty care, and social services rose, while communication, non - ferrous metals, power equipment, and media led the decline [3][36]. - Market style influence: Different market styles (cyclical, consumption, growth, financial, and stable) had different impacts on major indices. For example, the cyclical style had a significant negative impact on the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices [37][38]. - Valuation and trading volume: The document presents data on the valuation of major indices and sectors, as well as market trading volume and turnover rate. For example, the current valuations and historical quantiles of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, etc., are shown [40][42]. 4. Liquidity Tracking - Central bank operations and interest rates: The document shows data on the central bank's open - market operations, including currency injection, currency withdrawal, and net currency injection. It also presents the Shibor interest rate levels [51][52][53].