2026年光伏行业年度行情展望：光伏：静待好转，未来可期

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Globally, major photovoltaic - installing countries face a decline in growth. In 2026, the expected global new - installed capacity is about 493GW, a 13% year - on - year decrease from 2025, entering a negative growth channel [2][62]. - In the domestic market, the marginal negative impact of the "Document No. 136" policy will gradually emerge and continue into 2026. Centralized installation may not see a significant decline in growth, while distributed installation may experience a continuous slowdown. It is expected that the new domestic photovoltaic installed capacity in 2026 will be 200GW, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 33% [2][62]. - In the overseas market, the photovoltaic installation growth in Europe may decline due to economic weakness and subsidy reduction, and the US market may also see a weakening in installation. However, markets like India and the Middle East will still have high installation growth rates with policy support. The overseas new photovoltaic installed capacity in 2026 is expected to be 293GW, with a year - on - year growth rate of + 11% [2][62]. 3. Summaries Based on the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 Photovoltaic Market Review - Global Market: The global new installed capacity in 2025 was 566GW, and the year - on - year growth rate declined to 4% [4][5]. - Domestic Market: It is a policy - sensitive market with a front - high and back - low installation rhythm. Affected by the "Document No. 136", the installation enthusiasm in the second half of 2025 decreased significantly. The new installed capacity from January to October was 252.9GW, a 39% year - on - year increase. It is expected that the full - year new installed capacity will be 298GW, with a 7% year - on - year growth [5]. - US Market: Under the policy negative of the "Big and Beautiful Act", the photovoltaic installation growth rate continued to decline. From January to September, the cumulative installed capacity was 23.2GW, a 6% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative growth rate continued to fall. It is expected that the full - year new installed capacity will be 40GW, an 8% year - on - year increase. The import of components and cells also decreased, and the import sources changed [7]. - European Market: With the subsidy decline, the overall growth rate slowed down. Germany, Spain, Poland, and the UK all showed different degrees of decline or growth rate decline. It is expected that the full - year new installed capacity in Europe will be 71.3GW, a 5% year - on - year decrease. China's exports to Europe also decreased, and the European component inventory decreased [10][16]. - Indian Market: Policy subsidies stimulated the local installation demand. From January to October, the new installed capacity was 32.1GW, a 71% year - on - year increase. It is expected that the full - year installed capacity will reach 40GW [18]. 3.2 2026 Photovoltaic Market Outlook - Global Market: The expected global new installed capacity in 2026 is 493GW, a 13% year - on - year decrease [4][62]. - Domestic Market: The negative impact of policies will lead to a significant reduction in new installed capacity. The economic and profitability of photovoltaic grid - connected will decrease, and although energy storage may increase the installation enthusiasm in the long - term, it is difficult to support the installation in 1 - 2 years. It is expected that the new installed capacity in 2026 will be 200GW, a 33% year - on - year decrease [20][35]. - US Market: Under the influence of trade barriers, subsidy cancellation, and other factors, the photovoltaic installation will continue to weaken. The "Big and Beautiful Act" restricts future installations, and the double - anti - investigation on India, Indonesia, and Laos will increase the cost of imports. It is expected that the new installed capacity in 2026 will be 35GW, a 13% year - on - year decrease [38][46]. - European Market: In the context of economic weakness, the government's subsidy reduction will lead to a slowdown in demand. Considering the grid's carrying capacity limit, the photovoltaic installation growth rate will remain weak. It is expected that the new installed capacity in 2026 will be 69GW, a 3% year - on - year decrease [54]. - Indian Market: Government subsidies will continue to stimulate the photovoltaic installation demand. Although there are policies to promote local industries, it is expected that the new installed capacity in 2026 will be 50GW, a 25% year - on - year increase [56][61].