2025年11月宏观数据点评：生产偏稳，需求回落

Economic Performance - In November, the industrial production growth rate was 4.8%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[11] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) fell by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November, with a deeper decline compared to the previous period[11] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in November reached 43,898 billion yuan, growing by 1.3%, which is a decrease of approximately 1.6 percentage points from the previous month[11] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment grew by 1.9%, with a decline of 0.8 percentage points in growth rate[18] - Infrastructure investment decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 1 percentage point[18] - Real estate development investment from January to November was 78,591 billion yuan, down 15.9%, with the decline widening by 1.2 percentage points[19] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales excluding automobiles grew by 2.5%, indicating that the decline in automobile consumption negatively impacted overall consumer performance[25] - The growth rate of retail sales in urban areas was 1.0%, while rural areas saw a growth of 2.8%[21] - Consumption of furniture, building materials, and jewelry saw significant declines, with automobile consumption experiencing a deepening drop[22] Policy Outlook - The government aims to maintain stable economic growth while enhancing quality and efficiency, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply[28] - Policies will include increasing central budget investment and implementing measures to stabilize investment and consumption[28] Risk Factors - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in international financial conditions, and unexpected shifts in China-U.S. policies[29]