铁矿日报：基本面变化不大，市场情绪有所回暖-20251217

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View After the disturbance of macro - events gradually fades, the trading logic of iron ore will gradually return to the fundamentals. With the shipment stabilizing and rising, weak rigid demand, and inventory accumulation, the overall fundamentals are weak. However, the back structure of the futures contract and the futures discount under the positive basis provide some support for the futures price. Therefore, the recent iron ore price will generally fluctuate within a range with relatively small volatility [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market行情态势回顾 - Futures Price: The main contract of iron ore futures fluctuated slightly higher during the day, closing at 768 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton or 0.92% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was nearly 230,000 lots, and the open interest increased by 9,000 lots to 489,000 lots, with 8.2 billion yuan of settled funds. The short - term price maintains a slightly stronger range - bound trend [1]. - Spot Price: The mainstream spot varieties at the port, such as PB powder at Qingdao Port, rose by 1 to 784 yuan, and Super Special powder rose by 1 to 673 yuan. The main swap contract was at 102.55 (+1.02) US dollars/ton. Spot prices rose slightly [1]. - Basis and Spread: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port converted to the futures price was 817.2 yuan/ton, with a basis of 49.2 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed slightly. The 1 - 5 spread of iron ore was 20.5 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 22.5 yuan. The iron ore futures contract showed a back structure + positive basis, which may further limit the downside space of futures [1]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, with both Australian and Brazilian shipments growing, and Brazil's shipment growth rate being relatively large. The shipments of mines in non - mainstream countries weakened month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the possible end - of - year shipment rush by mines. The arrivals this period increased significantly month - on - month, and the rhythm of ore arrivals still fluctuated greatly [2]. - Demand: In the seasonal off - season, both environmental and annual overhauls have been carried out, molten iron production continued to decline sharply, the profitability rate of steel mills weakened month - on - month, the daily consumption and inventory of sinter powder both declined, molten iron production is expected to continue to weaken, and the release of restocking demand is still slow [2]. - Inventory: Port inventory increased slightly month - on - month, with more arrivals during the week and intensified port congestion. Steel mill inventory decreased instead of increasing month - on - month. With the decline of molten iron production, daily consumption weakened month - on - month, the inventory - to - sales ratio decreased, and steel mills' willingness to restock was weak. Overall, the fundamentals remain loose [2]. 3.3 Macro - level Analysis - US: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected in its December meeting, and the tone was more dovish than the market - expected "hawkish rate cut". It not only announced a short - term bond purchase plan, but Fed Chairman Powell also sent dovish signals. Although the non - farm payrolls in November rebounded slightly, the unemployment rate reached a four - year high and entered the warning zone, indicating that the US job market continued to cool down [3]. - China: The Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference continued the general tone of "seeking progress while maintaining stability", and continued to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. The primary task for next year is to expand domestic demand, focusing on increasing urban and rural residents' income and releasing the potential of service consumption, and promoting the transformation of old and new driving forces through innovation. The economic data in November showed that industrial production still had resilience, but the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales dropped to 1.3%, indicating weak domestic demand and still relying on policy support [3].