螺纹日报：成交缩量窄幅震荡-20251217

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core View - The current market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, but the decline in production, the rise of furnace materials, and inventory destocking provide support at the bottom. The market has digested the off - season demand and news of steel export licenses. It is expected to trade on the winter storage expectation in the future, and is predicted to run with a slightly upward trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether production capacity can continue to shrink and the start of winter storage demand [7] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - The main contract of rebar has seen three consecutive days of shrinking trading volume and narrow intraday fluctuations, closing at 3084 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.1%. The trading volume was 593,611 lots, showing a stable and rising trend in the past three trading days [1] - The spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar in the mainstream area was 3280 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] - The futures price was at a discount of 196 yuan/ton to the spot price, which may support the futures price to some extent [1] Fundamental Data Supply - demand situation - Supply: As of the week ending December 11, rebar production decreased by 105,300 tons week - on - week to 1.7878 million tons, and decreased by 392,900 tons year - on - year. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.63%, down 1.53 percentage points week - on - week and 1.92% year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 35.93%, down 0.43% from the previous week. The daily average hot metal output decreased by 31,000 tons to 2.292 million tons. The decline in production was mainly due to blast furnace maintenance and loss - induced production cuts [2] - Demand: Demand has entered the traditional off - season. As of the week ending December 11, the apparent consumption decreased by 138,900 tons week - on - week to 2.0309 million tons, and decreased by 345,700 tons year - on - year. It is at a near - 4 - year low. Spot market transactions are mainly for rigid procurement, and speculative demand is low. Real estate data continued to decline in November, and the real estate sector still drags down demand. Future attention should be paid to infrastructure demand [2] - Inventory: As of the week ending December 11, the total inventory decreased by 243,100 tons week - on - week to 4.795 million tons, with the social inventory decreasing by 224,300 tons and the steel mill inventory slightly decreasing by 18,800 tons. The destocking of social inventory shows the current demand resilience. The overall inventory pressure is still controllable [3][4] Macroeconomic aspect - The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to flexibly and efficiently use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to maintain sufficient liquidity and smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism. It aims to stabilize the real estate market, control new construction, destock, and optimize supply according to local conditions, and encourage the acquisition of existing commercial housing for affordable housing. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December as expected. The macro - economic outlook is moderately positive. The 14th Five - Year Plan provides a transformation path for the steel industry [4] Cost aspect - The futures prices of iron ore and coking coal and coke have stabilized and rebounded, enhancing cost support [5] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Continuous supply contraction, ongoing inventory destocking, expectations of loose policies, large discount on the futures price providing bottom support, strong iron ore, and the stop - fall and rebound of coking coal and coke enhancing cost support [6] - Bearish factors: Seasonal weakening of terminal demand, more construction site closures in the north, cautious winter storage willingness of traders, and weak real estate data [6] Short - term View Summary - The current market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, but the decline in production, the rise of furnace materials, and inventory destocking provide support at the bottom. The market has digested the off - season demand and news of steel export licenses. It is expected to trade on the winter storage expectation in the future, and is predicted to run with a slightly upward trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether production capacity can continue to shrink and the start of winter storage demand [7]