沥青日报：震荡上行-20251217

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The asphalt supply is decreasing, with the production expected to decline in December, and the inventory - to - sales ratio is rising but still near the lowest level in recent years. The demand is weakening as road construction in the north is ending due to cold weather, and the increase in the south is limited. The crude oil price is weakly oscillating, and concerns about Venezuelan heavy crude exports may affect asphalt production. The market is cautious, and it is expected that the asphalt futures price will oscillate [1]. Content Summary by Related Parts Market Analysis - Supply: Last week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 27.8%, 0.9 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a multi - year low. In December, the expected domestic asphalt production is 215.8 million tons, a 3.1% month - on - month and 13.8% year - on - year decrease. The national asphalt shipment volume decreased by 9.69% week - on - week to 253,400 tons. The asphalt refinery inventory - to - sales ratio increased week - on - week and is near the lowest level in recent years [1]. - Demand: Last week, most of the downstream asphalt industries' operating rates declined. The road asphalt operating rate decreased by 2 percentage points to 27% due to capital and weather constraints. With the north's cold weather, road construction is ending, and the overall demand is average [1]. - Crude Oil: Iraqi oil fields are resuming production, and the US is promoting peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. However, sanctions on Venezuela may affect asphalt production, and the discount of Venezuelan diluted asphalt has narrowed [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2602 contract rose 3.58% to 3,012 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 2,855 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,014 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 1,592 to 235,465 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 2,910 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 02 contract dropped to - 102 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Shandong Shengxing switched to producing residual oil, and the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 27.8%, 0.9 percentage points lower than last year's same period, at a multi - year low [4]. - Demand - related Investment: From January to October, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year - on - year. From January to November, the fixed - asset investment in road transportation decreased by 4.7% year - on - year, and infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year [4]. - Downstream Operating Rate: As of the week of December 12, most of the downstream asphalt industries' operating rates declined, with the road asphalt operating rate decreasing by 2 percentage points to 27% due to capital and weather constraints [4]. - Social Financing: From January to November, the social financing stock increased by 8.5% year - on - year, with the growth rate remaining the same as that from January to October [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of December 12, the asphalt refinery inventory - to - sales ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points to 13.4% week - on - week, near the lowest level in recent years [4].