芳烃日报：纯苯库存压制、苯乙烯供需双弱-20251217

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pure benzene market is in a situation where supply exceeds demand, with significant port inventory pressure due to increased imports from South Korea. Although the subsequent inventory accumulation will gradually slow down, the market sentiment remains weak, and there is a possibility of further decline [1][4][5] - The styrene market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. With low operating rates and inventory reduction, downstream demand is mainly for immediate needs. Considering the seasonal inventory accumulation in the first quarter of next year, styrene is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis Pure Benzene - Downstream production profits: The production profit of caprolactam is -330 yuan/ton (+0), that of phenol - ketone is -952 yuan/ton (+0), that of aniline is 611 yuan/ton (-237), and that of adipic acid is -1075 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Downstream operating rates: The operating rate of caprolactam is 74.57% (-4.58%), that of phenol is 79.50% (-2.50%), that of aniline is 75.94% (-1.29%), and that of adipic acid is 59.20% (-0.80%) [1] - Market situation: Due to tariff issues, South Korea's exports of pure benzene to China have increased, resulting in concentrated arrivals of imports and significant port inventory pressure. However, the subsequent inventory accumulation will gradually slow down, presenting a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [1] Styrene - Production and utilization rate: From December 5th to 11th, China's total styrene factory output was 33.88 tons, a decrease of -1.05% from the previous period, and the factory capacity utilization rate was 68.11%, a decrease of -0.74% month - on - month [2] - Downstream consumption: The consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS of styrene was 27.24 tons, a decrease of -0.73% month - on - month [2] - Inventory situation: The styrene factory inventory was 17.60 tons, a decrease of -0.11% from last week. As of December 8th, the styrene inventory at East China ports was 14.68 tons, a decrease of -8.59% from last week, and the inventory at South China ports was 2.3 tons, an increase of +142.11% from last week [2] - Profit situation: As of December 10th, the non - integrated profit of styrene was -140 yuan/ton, and as of December 12th, the integrated profit of styrene was 425.46 yuan/ton [2] - Market outlook: There were many styrene overhauls in the fourth quarter, and the port inventory decreased. However, according to past industry rules, there is a high possibility of seasonal inventory accumulation from January to March [2] Macroeconomic Analysis - The central financial office stated that expanding domestic demand is the top priority for next year, and efforts should be made to boost consumption from both supply and demand sides by grasping the structural changes in consumption [3] - Trump has completely blocked the sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela and demanded the return of oil and other assets to the United States [3] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Pure benzene continued to decline during the day. Affected by the inventory pressure from concentrated imports, it remained in a state of strong supply and weak demand, with weak market sentiment. The continuous decline in crude oil also had a certain drag on pure benzene, and it is still treated as a weak pattern, with the possibility of further decline [4][5] - Styrene maintained inventory reduction at a low operating rate, and downstream demand was mainly for immediate needs, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand. Considering the seasonal inventory accumulation period in the first quarter of next year, styrene is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [5]